The outlook I would've given if I could see the future

I believe that the SPC never quite grasped the gravity of the severe weather potential in the state of Michigan yesterday.  I can't fault them for being a bit conservative; our state has a history of duping forecasters and defying categorical outlooks.  An embarrassment of sorts occurred earlier this year when a tornado watch was issued for SE Michigan, yet no severe storms whatsoever manifested.

With that in mind, it's important to know that this isn't an exact science by any stretch of the imagination.  Imagine the entire ocean before you.  Now, imagine trying to predict where bubbles will form on the ocean's surface and the effects they'll have on the ocean's floor, several hundred feet below.  That's similar to what meteorologists and forecasters are tasked with; they're given raw data, and then they have to use mathematics, computer models, and their own experience to interpret said data and make an intelligent prediction which will be 80% accurate.  The fact that they accomplish this feet as often as they do speaks volumes to how intelligent they are and how fortunate we are here in the United States to have such robust tools and people at our disposal.  I truly believe that if parts of the nation didn't face complete destruction from the sky every year, the science never would've gotten a second thought, and we'd have no understanding as a species of how the atmosphere works beyond what we imagine in our heads.

Philosophical rambling aside, none of us can predict the future.  If I could, here's the outlook I would've issued, and why:

Yesterday's outlook warranted a "Moderate Risk" categorical outlook.  The reason I make that assessment is simple - I looked at the storm damage reports throughout the state.  While reports are still ongoing, and this isn't quite finalized, there are 99 reports of severe weather that the National Weather Service has received from yesterday's event thus far.  Of those 99 reports, 26 were hail greater than 1 inch, 11 were damaging wind gusts > 60mph, 61 were actual wind damage reports and 1 tornado was confirmed. 

Back on November 17th 2013, much of southern lower Michigan was included in a Moderate Risk zone.  After the storms passed, there were only 85 total severe weather reports, with 4 confirmed tornadoes, 1 hail report, 20 reports of damaging wind gusts and 60 reports of actual wind damage.  That's right - yesterday's wind damage report total actually exceeded that of the November 17th event, which was one of the most deadly tornado outbreaks ever to strike the Great Lakes, and a High Risk day.

That isn't to discount November 17th at all - the total nationwide reports flat out dwarfed yesterday's event by a total of 757 to 362.  It does, however, show just how nasty yesterday's storms actually were as far as Michigan was concerned.  Keep in mind, this was neither a true "derecho" event nor a tornado outbreak; it was merely four distinct rounds of severe thunderstorms plowing across the same areas.  I didn't even truly anticipate that it would be as bad as it was.  Even if I had, for confidence reasons I do not use the red or purple colors unless the SPC does, as I truly believe that those with more experience and knowledge in a subject should be the ones to ultimately be the authority in their field.  While I disagreed with the SPC's refusal to acknowledge the threat in the running up to yesterday, by yesterday morning they had pretty much matched what I had posted the night before.

In the end, it doesn't really matter.  Very few people I talked to were caught off guard by yesterday's severe weather, which makes me feel good as both a hobbyist and as a network administrator, as the internet has probably emerged as the most powerful tool that the human race has at their disposal for combating the deadly effects severe weather can bring.  TV and radio continue to play their role, and with the combination of all three, more people are able to avoid being injured or killed by severe storms than were even a few years ago.  The categorical outlooks are but the first line of defense before watches and warnings go into effect.  They can also help gauge the "gravity" of any watches or warnings that go out.  I'm sure a few meteorologists would give me tons of hell and might even slap me for saying this, but I'm of the firm opinion that a tornado warning on a High Risk day carries much more weight than a tornado warning on a Marginal Risk day, just as a tornado warning where an actual tornado was spotted carries a bit more weight than one issued based on radar indicated rotation.

I hope that what I do here helps people, in the same way that I hope that what I do at work every day helps people.  I'm never sure if I'm helping people enough, or if I can do more.  I don't have many tools at my disposal other than my wits and my writing skills. That being said, I love nature, and if I can lull one person enough through this cheesy website into loving nature, too, then I'll feel a sense of accomplishment.