Storm watch 2015 continues. This one doesn't look like a threat to the Great Lakes region right now, but it has the potential to be considering how powerful it's currently forecast to become. This is a long way out, too, but the GFS has had a good track record when it comes to predicting troughs and the associated surface lows that form from them this year.
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| A horse-shoe shaped upper level trough is never good to see... |
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| ...Especially when it may come with a coupled 500mb jet. |
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| Mixed layer winds of 60kts+ could make this thing mean. |
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| A low level jet of 45-50kts equates to potentially tornadic supercells should there be enough instability. |
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| A very powerful cold front would occlude the warm sector, generating a very powerful cyclone and deep pressure drops. |
Regarding severe potential, it's going to be entirely dependent upon temperature and moisture content to determine what threat, if any, will exist. This one definitely raises my hair a bit, though, considering the latitude. As of this model run, Minnesota would be under the gun, but should this feature develop there's no telling how far east or west it will assemble.
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