Thursday, December 24, 2015

Storm mode next week highly questionable

The models have been anything but consistent regarding the storm that will affect Michigan early to mid next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting temperatures near the ground will be quite cold. The ECMWF are now leaning toward warmer temperatures aloft, which leads me to believe we may wind up with sleet changing over to rain, or rain which freezes initially before melting quickly. However, the GFS continues to predict heavy snowfall for SE Michigan. See below:


As such, I've introduced a new winter outlook template:

I have no idea what's going to happen just yet. The difference between the models and the deviations between runs are leaving too much up in the air. I expect to know more in the coming days.

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