This will be a dual-sided post. We'll start with the announcement, as the actual weather information should be relatively brief.
I've always had several passions: technology, literature, art, and science chief among them. Growing up in a community devoid of pretty much all four was not very easy. If you wanted technology, you either had to be rich and invest a ton of money into your hobby, or you had to rely upon what you could scare up here and there. This changed in the 90s as computers became more accessible and affordable, but when it came to learning anything about them, to this day, you're pretty much on your own if you come from rural America.. or at least my corner of it. The same goes for writing, art and science. Communities such as mine appreciate the practical over the whimsical and informative, and there's little question as to why, as it serves them very well.
Growing up, I never was sure which one of my passions would steer my destiny. At one time I had the aspiration, as do many gradeschoolers, to become a doctor. Looking back, I'm fairly certain that had I dedicated all of my time and effort into achieving this goal, I could've. I have family with a medical background, know plenty of nurses and am familiar enough with biology and chemistry to have made it work. It helped that I was in and out of hospitals for either myself or my family members for most of my youth, and witnessed such events as brain aneurysms and heart attacks when I was very young (for the curious, the victims were my family members, and they all survived their ordeals). I think observing the doctors, however, is what wound up putting me off of it. Long, unpredictable hours. Impersonal contact and coldly delivering potentially devastating news frequently. The slightest mistake spelling disaster. By the time I was a teenager, these types of situations did not appeal to me in the slightest. I loved to draw, but unfortunately I wasn't any good at it. I loved music, but I didn't see much of a future in it. I thought about being a writer, but neither journalism nor authorship came without extreme risk. Journalism would've required hundreds of hours spent trying to impress superiors, hoping to hit it big with a story that would make headlines. Attempting to write books, no matter the genre, was essentially sink or swim. I may yet do it some day, but just getting published, let alone making enough from your product to support yourself seemed like a long shot at best, especially when you come from a community where such ideas were dismissed as arrogant, head-in-the-clouds nonsense. And there were the other sciences, such as meteorology. I loved earth science. I loved weather. Some of the very first books I read were about storms and tornadoes. When I was 6 years old, I visited the library - the very same library I currently live across from - and would check out dozens of books on the subject. They were full of what I know today are complete myths and nonsense: tornadoes form from mammatus clouds, tornadoes have wind speeds of 800mph and more. Tornadoes cause such drops in pressure that buildings are known to explode - better open those windows during a tornado warning! Over the years, the information became more steady, and the myths were debunked, but it always fascinates me that we still have such trouble understanding a phenomenon that has been around at least as long as we have as a species, in this day and age. To me, the weather represents the last 'magic'. We've harnessed the power of the atom and have been successfully bending it to our will for over 50 years, but we still can't figure out how water vapor can, pretty much all on its own, create destruction on par with our most devastating weapon.
Come high school, I always knew it was going to be weather or technology. Don't get me wrong; I had just as much of a passion for tech as I did for tornadoes. I was exposed early thanks to my "granduncle", who loved to tinker with computers. I got to play around with modems before most people knew what they were, and when the internet revolution came, I was ready and waiting for it. To this day, I miss the "wild west" that the internet was in its early days, and all the fun ways you could mess with people online. Soon I learned to build my own machines, and machines for others. I was the one all of my family members went to with computer questions. I've worked support, development, network administration and network engineering. Eventually, this is what I made a career out of, and I don't regret it. The stability is great, as the demand for those who 'get' technology is always high. The pay varies depending on where you are, but its usually a cut above other fields. The prestige is mixed; some revere you as a sage while others see you as a child wielding an expensive gun pointed at even more expensive targets. It's a mixed bag, but you (usually) feel appreciated and needed.
The passion for the atmosphere and nature always remained. I learned about what made the atmosphere tick in my own time and begin to comprehend the long-winded hyper-esoteric posts put out by the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center. I felt, as I usually do, that people would learn to appreciate not only the atmosphere but the people who try to figure out what it's doing more if they had a translator, so I began to make equally long-winded Facebook posts breaking down the terminology. When I started this page little over a year ago at the behest of some of my friends, it was as a fun side-project and as a way to condense an incredible amount of Facebook posts into an easier to maintain format. I had a medium where I wouldn't have to worry about going over a text limit and could post multiple, captioned images or video without too much hassle. I was learning as I went and had a lot of fun.
However, unfortunately, things have changed. Quite a bit of personal turmoil has risen in my life lately, and I no longer find myself quite as inclined to post here. I've actually come to think of it as a chore - something I'm obligated to do, rather than something I look forward to. I don't do very well with that, and have been thinking about the future of this blog because of it for the past week or two. The final straw came today, when some work-related trouble arose because of it. The wrong people are reading this, and the last thing I need in my life is to wonder if more stress is going to enter my life because of a hobby. So, I've sadly come to the conclusion that the best course of action is for me to suspend making posts at this time, effective immediately. I will still post news on upcoming weather events on Facebook for those on my friends list (Phill.Wilson.509), but these too will likely be fewer. I may come back to this some day, but time will have to tell. For now, I believe there are more than enough resources out there for those who are looking for weather information and analysis without the need of a hobbyist such as myself attracting any more malcontent.
So I wrap up my final post for the foreseeable future with some information from the Climate Prediction Center. I wish this could at least be happier news considering the circumstances, but unfortunately nature, too, seems to be against me this year. I meant to make a post on this last week, but considering all that's been going on its no surprise I haven't got around to it.
In short, the drought we're experiencing in Mid Michigan and the Thumb is expected to persist into October. In looking at the long range models, I don't see any indication of much help on the way. The jet stream is incredibly weak this summer, and when it has amped up it hasn't been in our neck of the woods save for one or two occasions. Thunderstorm activity in general has been negligible, and even the portions of the state that aren't officially in drought are abnormally dry. It's going to take a massive weather pattern alternation for this to change, and I just don't see it happening any time soon. We have had plenty of moisture to work with, but days of high pressure ridges followed by extremely weak cold fronts isn't going to cut it. We need stronger cold fronts driven by powerful upper level disturbances in order to make it rain and thunder in Michigan, and they just aren't there. Time will tell what August and September bring, but I'm not optimistic.
With that, I close the book for the time being. Thanks to all who've supported me with this experiment. I'll be around, and I may yet come back to this some day. As always, it's wait-and-see.
Phill
Friday, July 29, 2016
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Storms appear to be re-intensifying as they approach Thumb
Be advised that these storms appear to be intensifying a bit as they approach/cross the bay. Flood Advisory was just issued for Huron County. No severe warnings yet but the reports I'm reading indicate some damaging winds and these storms look like they're right on the threshold. If they intensify AT ALL as they make incoming on the thumb it could be a wild ride.
Some severe warnings going out - Nasty storms popping up in western lower MI
A very nasty cluster of storms just popped up about 50 miles south west of Cadillac heading toward a town called Luther. Baldwin also looks to be on the receiving end of this storm.
This thing has a lot of moisture in it and it looks as though it could produce some torrential downpours in addition to damaging winds and penny size hail.
This thing has a lot of moisture in it and it looks as though it could produce some torrential downpours in addition to damaging winds and penny size hail.
Chance of rain, thunderstorms this afternoon in Mid Michigan
There is actually a good shot at thunderstorms developing in Mid Michigan late this afternoon. Mixed layer instability should build to around 1500j/kg by 5PM, however bulk shear values will not be particularly impressive at only around 20kts. This should mean severe weather chances are slim to none, but we could get a good soaking or two from the thunderstorms that do pop up. I wouldn't rule out a brief severe wind gust being possible either, as these updrafts and subsequent downdrafts may be short lived but strong.
More widespread rain and thunder is in the forecast for Thursday, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how much instability will be present, and we may only wind up seeing remnants. Here's hoping for a couple days of soaking to offset the continuing drought, now expected to last into October. More on that in a full post later.
More widespread rain and thunder is in the forecast for Thursday, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how much instability will be present, and we may only wind up seeing remnants. Here's hoping for a couple days of soaking to offset the continuing drought, now expected to last into October. More on that in a full post later.
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Rainy, stormy Sunday/Sunday night - heat will depend on storm coverage
The remnants of storms currently blowing through Iowa and Wisconsin are going to heavily influence our forecast tomorrow.
This system appears to be weakening as it moves east. Tomorrow morning may include some rain/thunder for the northern portion of the state per NWS Gaylord, but I'm with NWS Detroit in thinking its influence should be negligible tomorrow morning, making the NAM4KM's forecast a bit unreliable and the temperatures likely on the hot side. A marginal risk for severe weather does exist with any storms that form tomorrow, as the conditional threat for severe wind is there, but nailing down exactly where the biggest threat would be is going to be impossible until this thing evolves a bit more. I'm of the opinion that it's not going to be a very robust threat either way, as the weakening trends with this system should continue as it draws closer.
This system appears to be weakening as it moves east. Tomorrow morning may include some rain/thunder for the northern portion of the state per NWS Gaylord, but I'm with NWS Detroit in thinking its influence should be negligible tomorrow morning, making the NAM4KM's forecast a bit unreliable and the temperatures likely on the hot side. A marginal risk for severe weather does exist with any storms that form tomorrow, as the conditional threat for severe wind is there, but nailing down exactly where the biggest threat would be is going to be impossible until this thing evolves a bit more. I'm of the opinion that it's not going to be a very robust threat either way, as the weakening trends with this system should continue as it draws closer.
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Severe threat coming earlier than expected - Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of LP, eastern U.P.
A storm complex is now expected to maintain its vigor and move southward through the state. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of the state until 5:00PM EDT.
The main threats are damaging winds and hail. I'm still concerned that we'll see another round of storms form this afternoon and plow through the area, but these may be more isolated/discrete in nature. A 2% tornado threat remains in effect by the SPC, which I'm assuming is referencing this second round. They've yet to issue an enhanced risk but this is pretty much certain to be on the way in a later update.
The main threats are damaging winds and hail. I'm still concerned that we'll see another round of storms form this afternoon and plow through the area, but these may be more isolated/discrete in nature. A 2% tornado threat remains in effect by the SPC, which I'm assuming is referencing this second round. They've yet to issue an enhanced risk but this is pretty much certain to be on the way in a later update.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Heat Advisory just issued for large chunk of SE Michigan
NWS Detroit has issued a heat advisory for all of the forecast area except for the northern Thumb (Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola counties).
Text of the advisory is as follows:
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND EXCEED 100
DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
* VERY HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
RELIEF.
IMPACTS...
* THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WILL BE SUCEPTIBLE TO DEHYDRATION
AND HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
* ELDERLY PERSONS, OUTDOOR PETS, AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO HEAT STRESS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.
WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY
AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST
BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME
BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT
STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.
Text of the advisory is as follows:
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND EXCEED 100
DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
* VERY HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
RELIEF.
IMPACTS...
* THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WILL BE SUCEPTIBLE TO DEHYDRATION
AND HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
* ELDERLY PERSONS, OUTDOOR PETS, AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO HEAT STRESS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.
WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY
AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST
BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME
BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT
STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.






