Saturday, June 27, 2015

A potential washout of a weekend

Latest model guidance is suggesting that the jet stream is going to dive well to the south of Michigan over the next few days.  This should serve to keep temperatures much cooler than normal for the duration.  On top of this, a strong storm system looks as though it will form to our immediate south and east tonight, then roll northward over the weekend.  This will bring southeast Michigan a chance of some fairly heavy rainfall - up to 3 inches in some locations.



I'm a bit concerned about localized flooding on this one, particularly in the Detroit area and even up to some areas of the southern thumb. The NAM4KM is the most aggressive in terms of rainfall accumulation, especially in the last couple of runs...


...However, it's suggesting somewhat ridiculous amounts of rain in some locations (14.75 inches in one area of Indiana, and 8.38 inches in northeast Ohio), so I'm not sure how reliable its forecast is just yet. Either way, I'd not make too may outdoor plans for the weekend if you live in said regions. Conversely, western and northern lower Michigan will likely remain dry, if a little cloudy.

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