Sunday, June 28, 2015

A stable week ahead, followed by a slight chance of strong storms next Monday

Stability is going to be the word this week.  The jet stream is staying to our south almost in a late winter/early spring like pattern, which is going to keep temperatures mild and the atmosphere relatively quiet.  There will be a few chances for rain or even a thunderstorm over the next few days, but there's little to no chance for any nasty weather of note.

With that in mind, the GFS model is beginning to hint that Michigan could see some severe weather on Monday or Tuesday of next week.  It is forecasting that a reasonably strong low pressure system will move into eastern Alberta/western Ontario around that time, and that a moderate low level jet will bring up some very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico leading to some ridiculously high dew points to the tune of 70°+.


If this scenario does play out, it doesn't look like it would be very significant... not anywhere near the scale of last Monday's event.  Wind shear is predicted to be modest at best, and there's a question as to how much instability will be present, but for now there's enough ingredients to create some yellows on the SCP in a few different model runs.


If the forecast should verify, I wouldn't be surprised if a few strong to severe cells pop up somewhere in the state, though it's way too early to tell exactly what this system will do yet.

In unrelated-but-pretty-cool news, as I was driving down to Lapeer for work this evening, I managed to snap a couple pictures of what appeared to be a cumulus cloud with a somewhat lenticular base.



All the clouds seemed to show signs that there was some slightly strong wind shear over the region. As I was coming home, I even noticed a couple cold air funnel clouds, though unfortunately it was too dark to get good pictures of those.  These funnel clouds pose no danger, and usually form in the wake of a cold front where the mixed layer is just unstable enough to form decent clouds, and there's enough directional shear to make those clouds rotate.

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