Winter Weather Advisory issued for northern ¾ of Michigan

No watch this time around, but I still think the image is appropriate.

From NWS Detroit:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

 * THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES
   FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
   TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHEST
   AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

Totals should be higher the further north you go. I'm actually of the opinion that the only reason we're not seeing a Winter Storm Watch is because the snow is expected to melt off quickly once it transitions over to rain. I still think some areas may still wind up seeing upgrades to warnings depending on how this plays out.

Winter won't quit - Increasing confidence for storm Wednesday

The 6"+ that fell in Huron County melted off for the most part today, leaving more water on still saturated ground. Temperatures continue to hover around freezing, so that waterlogged ground may transition back and forth between ice and mud for some time, especially that which lies in the sunlight.

There remains no letup in sight for our state. A moisture-laden storm from the south will pay us a visit Wednesday, and it's looking like another one that could drop a lot of snow, at least initially. There is a small silver lining in that the snow should transition to rain as temperatures should approach 35-40 by Wednesday evening over the southern two thirds of the area, and the great news is that little to no freezing rain is expected.

Up north, you're almost certain to see all snow, and possibly a great deal of it - 6 to 9 inches is what I'd expect a this point if you live north of Bay County. 6 inches will also be very possible in areas along the US 10 corridor into Huron County. South of that, however, you're going to have a very tight cut-off point where the snow will be much, much less - possibly 20 miles or less. I'd expect 1-3 inches of total snow mixed with potential sleet in these areas, but the transition to rain should be much more rapid here and any snow that does fall should liquefy quickly.

I expect a Winter Storm Watch to be issued within the next day for the counties shaded in dark gray in the outlook, with warnings and advisories to follow thereafter. It may be another very messy travel day Wednesday, so be prepared.

Ready for some more bad news? That second half of April warm-up? Yeah, that's not such a sure thing anymore. I'm beginning to wonder if temperatures won't rebound until the last week of April into May. The polar air mass up north just seems to be too strong for any countermeasures right now. More on that tomorrow.

WINTER STORM WARNING issued for Thumb Area

The Old Man seems to have a bone to pick with me this year. NWS Detroit has just pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Warning for Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties. Everyone else has either been downgraded to an advisory or had all headlines cancelled outright. 

Text:

MIZ049-054-055-031645-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0004.160403T1800Z-160404T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0006.160403T1800Z-160404T0900Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY
440 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
   FORECASTED AFTER 1 PM EDT WITH THE PEAK OF THE SNOWFALL
   OCCURRING IN THE 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT TIMEFRAME.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

 * THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WITHIN A
   NARROW BAND OVER THE REGION.

IMPACTS...

* UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

* TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED DUE TO POOR VISIBILITIES IN
  HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

This is the fifth Winter Storm Warning issued for the Thumb Area this year. By contrast, Huron County had no warnings affect it at all last year. I wish I could say for sure that this was likely to be the last one issued, but with Wednesday looming and the way this year has gone, I can't be certain of anything.

Growing concern - Wednesday April 6th Potential Winter Storm

I know I'm getting ahead of myself considering that Winter Storm Warnings could be coming within the next 6 hours for an additional 8 inches of snow in some areas, but I don't want this one to slip off the radar because it could bring even more hazardous weather to the area.

Yesterday I made mention of potentially heavy rains this coming Wednesday which in addition to a warm up would cause snow melt and potential flooding issues. The good news is that this is looking less and less likely from the latest model forecasts. The bad news is that the system is still coming, and it's looking like it's going to be cold enough for snow instead.

All I can see in this image is the bottom of a woman's stiletto shoe. That shoe belongs to Mother Nature as she curb-stomps the state of Michigan. 12z ECMWF projected snowfall rates for Wednesday morning.

Haven't had enough depressing graphics yet? Take a look at the projected snowfall totals below:

Both the GFS and ECMWF models are in close agreement in both timing and track of this storm thus far, though the GFS is taking the misery one step further and predicting freezing rain.  

I vote that we all just stay in bed for the next two weeks.

Winter Storm Watch issued for Mid Michigan and the Thumb for potential snowfall in excess of 6 inches tomorrow

Once again the Old Man is specifically targeting Mid Michigan and the Thumb area for large amounts of snow accumulation. A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued in addition to the Winter Weather Advisory for the areas shaded in navy blue on the map below.

This means that the National Weather Service is eyeing these counties in particular for a possible Winter Storm Warning within the next 24 hours. This comes as the next clipper system trains in on today's, and looks to pack much more of a punch. This could also be one of those storms that picks up some enhancement from Lake Huron, as the winds will be blowing in an ideal direction for such a scenario. Truth be told, we could wind up with an over-productive system which drops even more snow than what's currently being forecast. It's too early to tell, as when lake enhancement is involved it's very difficult to predict just how much will wind up falling until atmospheric observations come into play. When combined with what's on the way for tonight, we could be looking at 8 inches of total accumulation by Monday in the counties currently under a watch.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect along with the watch until 11PM tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory in Mid Michigan, Wind Advisory to the south

The first of two powerful clipper systems is going to affect the state beginning this afternoon. The first hazard is going to be accumulating snow. To that end, a winter weather advisory has been issued for a swath of counties along and between the US 10 and I-69 corridors. This advisory goes into affect at 2PM and lasts until 11PM. The bulk of the snow won't kick in until the afternoon, so if you have stuff to do that involves travelling in these areas, get it done this morning if possible. I don't expect the accumulation to be the biggest issue, but rather blowing snow and lack of visibility.

To the south, a wind advisory goes into affect around the same time. While those to the south of the advisory area should primarily see rain, sustained 30mph winds with gusts to 50mph are what's being called for, and the SPC has also put out a general thunder risk, which means that any showers/thunderstorms that do manage to form would pack more of a damaging wind risk than what they usually would.

If you're in an area under the wind advisory, you should probably prepare for power outages. Further north, the winds shouldn't be as much of an issue, but when combined with the snow they may make for a slow travel situation.

Here comes the COLD, here comes the SNOW again!

Michigan, ever the battleground... and the Old Man is coming back to wage war. We've wrapped up on the crazy rain as of this morning, and by the weekend we're going to be looking at another deep - if not too deep - freeze.

Depending on which model you go by, we could be looking at 20s or teens by 2am Sunday morning. The NAM is trending a bit warmer, while the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting temperatures will sink below 20, at least for some of the northern territories. Both of these models tend to trend a bit on the cold side, so my thinking is that Mid Michigan will sink to right around 22-24° and the northern areas would hit right around 20°. Teens could definitely be possible in a couple of pockets though. 

The GFS and ECMWF really turn on the freezer for Tuesday, though, and it's going to feel more like early January than early April. Both models are predicting temperatures in the single digits throughout most of Mid Michigan. Areas around the lakeshore should actually get a bit of a boost from the warm temperatures, so they would be closer to the teens. The good news is that it looks as though this would be accompanied by relatively clear skies (which makes sense considering temperatures usually drop at night when it's clear) and little wind, meaning wind chills may not be as much of a factor as they'd otherwise be. Both of these models could also be trending a bit cold, too, so we could wind up seeing temperatures closer to ten degrees in Mid Michigan and 20° near the lakeshore, if we're lucky. A brief warmup will be likely on Wednesday as a powerful warm-sector storm will likely pay us a visit, followed by another few chilly days. Things don't look like they're really going to bounce back temperature-wise until the week of April 10th. 

Now onto the part I'm sure nobody wants to hear about - snow.

We're going to have three potential rounds of it. Tonight's round should be light and not produce much accumulation. There is an indication that some areas may even see rain. Round two, however, should be all snow, and we could see as much as 2-4 inches from it depending on location. Round 3 should also be all snow, and another 2-4 inches could fall for a total of 4-8 inches in some areas by Monday morning.

This snow will likely melt off considerably on Wednesday should temperatures warm as much as what's being forecast. That's when another major storm system will likely pay us a visit and dump widespread heavy rain to add to our already oversaturated ground. Combined with the snowmelt and general wetness already present, I think we're going to be dealing with more flooding for at least the first half of April.

The good news is that there are some indications that the second half of April will be a bit warmer and a bit less wet for the second half of April. This will be very important for the agricultural industry, as of right now the fields are pretty much swamps.

To summarize:

• A cold, blustery weekend is ahead with some decent snowfall potential.

• There should be a warm-sector storm during the middle of next week, which should cause the snow to melt and add heavy rain. This will likely cause more flooding problems.

• The jury is out on the second half of April, but it definitely looks better than the first.