Another VERY powerful storm system to target the Great Lakes next week - Michigan in warm sector

The GFS is once again predicting a that a potent mixture of warm, moist air and cold, Canadian November air will spawn another gale-storm in the Great Lakes region next week.  This time, however, Michigan should be in the warm sector rather than the center of the low.

Wind speeds in the upper levels of the atmosphere could reach 120kts with this system.

The upper level winds are rather unique in regards to this system. The obvious feature predicted is the positively-tilted trough descending all the way to Nevada before cranking the winds northeastward to very high levels. However, another not-so-obvious upper level disturbance is also being predicted. This is what's referred to as a "short-wave" trough; it's nowhere near as prominent as the long wave trough to the south, but it can have an even greater impact on the weather local to it. This particular trough should enhance what is an already super-strong 120kt+ jet core.  The result is what you see predicted below:

This type of storm system could produce severe thunderstorms in our area should there be enough instability for them to get off the ground. Note that this is a big if - instability at this time of year is usually hard to come by, even with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s at the surface which is what's being predicted.

It remains to be seen just how much moisture this system will be able to suck up from the south, and what the timing of its arrival will be. If it were to have access to as much moisture as the current system overhead right now, I'd be a bit concerned, but this system won't have the remnants of a hurricane to work with and will rely on whatever it can accrete from the Gulf of Mexico. That isn't to say there won't be enough to make for a damaging wind threat, but it can mean the difference between a November gale and a November 17th 2013-style tornado outbreak.