Powerful storm system to target Michigan next week

More rain, potential thunder and very strong winds are going to be on the way for the middle of next week. Several runs of the GFS and ECMWF are predicting that a very potent storm system will form to our west and drench us.

The most impressive feature of the storm is the low-level jet - southern winds >50kts are predicted over Lake Michigan.

If this were summer and temperatures were warmer, severe weather would be a major concern, but as we're dealing with cool fall air, there likely isn't going to be enough fuel for any sustained severe storms. A brief strong thunderstorm forming over the lakes is very likely, though. I'll be keeping my eye on this one for sure, as a rare scenario like November 17th, 2013 can't be ruled out quite yet. So far, though, indications are that timing/instability won't be favorable for an event like that, and this thing should be churning out lots of convection prior to reaching maturity, which would also temper such a scenario.

What's most interesting to me is that our fall weather pattern isn't deviating that much from our summer pattern in terms of storm track; if anything, we're seeing more storm systems target the area. With a record-breaking El Niño in the south, we're likely going to see a warmer than usual winter, defined by low temperatures in the upper teens to twenties on average, with brief thaws of 30-40 degrees. Should this stormy pattern persist into the winter months, we'll likely be looking at a few potentially powerful winter storms dropping heavy snow, layers of ice, or even rain depending on what sector we wind up in and how cold/warm the temperatures will be that surround it.