Strong storm predicted for next week abruptly disappears from model guidance

Well, that just shows you how difficult the weather is to forecast a week in advance.

For the last 48 hours, the GFS has been consistently predicted a very powerful low pressure system maturing over western Ontario/eastern Manitoba and moving northeastward into the Hudson Bay. This system looked as though it could produce some very windy, rainy conditions in our state next week, if not severe thunderstorms.

Fast forward to today, and the last three GFS runs have completely nixed this feature from their forecasts:

These images all depict the same timeframe (around 1PM EDT on Thursday November 5th) as forecast by the GFS model run yesterday at 8am, then yesterday at 2pm, then yesterday at 8pm, then this morning at 2am.  Note that the last time the storm is depicted is yesterday's 8am run.  After this, it vanishes completely. 

We're still in store for a warm up, but the cool down that should follow may not quite be as sharp, and certainly shouldn't be as climactic.