Time to be thankful for the Great Lakes

It's going to get cold this weekend.

So cold that snow flurries are going to be likely in places close to the lakeshore throughout the state. These lake effect flurries will be driven by some very cold (for this time of year) arctic air being driven down into the midwest.  Eventually that air will make its way eastward, and things will start to warm up again.

However, it's interesting to note just what impact the lakes have on this air and just how cold it will get here compared to other states:

Take a look at the NAM's surface temperature prediction for New England on the morning of October 19th.  Temperatures in parts of New York and Pennsylvania are expected to sink as far as the low 20s in some places. This is also expected in states to our east as depicted by the first picture. By comparison, we're looking at lows in the upper 20s over the next few days. We can thank the warm lake temperatures for this. In the spring, cold lake temperatures tend to keep temps cooler in Michigan as compared to other areas of the country, but in the fall and early winter, the opposite effect occurs. This of course is also responsible for lake effect snow, and even thunderstorms. Last night, northern Huron County actually had a heck of a light show. A very strong thunderstorm, complete with 40-50mph gusts, blinding rain and LOTS of lightning erupted over the eastern Saginaw Bay and drove across Caseville southward into the eastern portion of the county. Temperatures were only in the mid 50s near Pigeon, but it's safe to assume temperatures over the lake were a bit warmer. Factor in the naturally higher humidity over a body of water, and you have enough instability to drive a storm like this.

A freeze watch remains in effect for most of southern lower Michigan (save for the western shoreline). This is because what's known as a "killing freeze" is expected in the next 36 hours; two or more hours at 28°F will basically destroy all fruits and vegetables still outside. Most have already ended their growing seasons, though, and this sort of thing is kind of a given around this time of year in Michigan. I expect this to be upgraded to a warning later today.