Strong storm system approaching Friday - Return of a chance of severe weather

If you take a look to your right, you'll notice the return of something I didn't expect to put back on the blog until next year - the thunderstorm outlook. As of right now, I'd say there's at least a marginal chance of Michigan seeing at least some severe weather this Friday, as a potent storm system first predicted last week looks like it's going to manifest itself to our north after all.

As of the last two runs, the NAM is predicting a very strong surface low approaching the Hudson Bay by around 10AM this Friday. This will be powered by a slightly negatively-tilted shortwave trough, with some very strong winds in tow. Low level winds should be out of the south, and according to the NAM may exceed 50kts over Lake Huron. I'd expect surface level winds to be quite strong as a result, with a good 40-50mph gale moving through the area. Any thunderstorms that formed in such a wind would be very fast moving and very powerful, despite the overall lack of instability. That, along with timing and storm mode, will be key in determining just what kind of risk for severe weather hazards (if any) that Michigan will face this Friday.

For now, the setup looks a bit tempered, but it definitely has potential. Dewpoints are predicted to exceed 60°F, though the NAM is notorious for overestimating moisture content so it's tough to call. We'll see what the SPC comes up with tomorrow; for now, my thinking is a 5 percent chance of storms with damaging winds with an isolated tornado or two, with a much higher chance of strong thunderstorms and an overall gusty day.