A mid-level vorticity maxima is going to spin down across the state beginning tomorrow, bringing with it a good chance of rain and a very slight chance (<10%) of a thunderstorm or two. This will persist into Wednesday, so most of the state should get at least slightly wet.
The bigger chance for storms comes on Saturday, as ample moisture is expected to stream into the state. Temperatures should climbing to the low to mid 70s, with dewpoints approaching 60°. The latest GFS has backed off a bit from this, and the ECMWF never quite got there, so I'm of the opinion that we're probably looking at 70-72° with a dewpoint of around 55-57°F. That should be ample moisture for thunderstorms, however, as a cold front will descend around that time. The jury remains out on just how much instability will be present, but I'd not be surprised if at least one or two decent storms fire up as usually do when cold fronts interact with warm fronts from the north like this. Wind shear does not look particularly strong from a speed perspective, but the direction does appear to be somewhat right-moving, at least initially. Enough instability could be present for large hail in some areas should any updrafts persist.
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