Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Timing of storms tomorrow should preclude severe threat - Small marginal risk of damaging winds from remnants

It's all about timing.


The remnants of storms that should develop today and tonight over the plains will arrive tomorrow morning in western lower Michigan. This should serve to remove some of the energy that would otherwise be present in the atmosphere tomorrow, and stabilize the all-important mixed layer. There is a remote chance that this remnant MCS could bring with it a few damaging wind gusts, however the chance is low.

Bearing that in mind, my outlook pretty much matches the SPC's save for expanding that risk to cover extreme SE Michigan. The reason being is that some of the high res models still have afternoon storms forming in those areas. Friday looks like it may also bring thunderstorms with it (again, remnants from the plains), but there is little to no severe threat..

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