This is powered by a stronger upper level disturbance and slightly more powerful surface low than we've seen thus far. Nonetheless, I'm not quite sure if I'm feeling this one yet. Instability looks like it's going to be very weak - on the order of 500 to 1000j/kg of MUCAPE. While the mid-range models are definitely hinting at a widespread area of thunderstorms developing, I'm not sure wind speeds are going to be up to snuff, either. Early projections are putting surface winds at only 10-15mph over the area. The winds could be strong enough to drive severe weather if there's a bit more instability to work with, so as always, it's going to be all about timing. If the system comes through a little earlier and can work with the day's peak heating, the storms might be a bit stronger. While winds are forecast to be forward veering, I doubt they're going to be strong enough to provide for even a weak tornado risk. For now the forecast is that the storms will come through at the end of the day, and that brief period where they could tap into the better levels of instability supports a very marginal damaging wind risk.
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