SPC adjusts convective outlook, as do I

With little to no morning convection holding over to dampen the environment and a bright sunny day allowing temperatures to overachieve, I'm of the opinion that we're looking at the potential for stronger thunderstorms in the regions where forcing for ascent is going to be present - mainly the entire U.P. and the northern half of lower Michigan.

The SPC has their marginal risk encompassing these areas, however I believe the potential for significant storms also exists to the south, to around the U.S. 10 corridor. The environment around those areas should also be more conducive to stronger storms, as we'll be dealing with higher temperatures and more instability. The HRRR paints a picture of thunderstorm potential along those areas, as well as the NAM4KM (to a much greater degree). Dewpoints forecast by the HRRR aren't quite as high as what the NAM is predicting, so instability levels should be significantly less than what was originally forecast a few days ago.

With that in mind, this has been the little wave that could in terms of what it's doing in the plains states. A MODERATE risk for severe weather (including a 15% tornado risk with 10% significant tornado hatching) is now present in Kansas. This feeds the notion that is a bit more intense than what forecasters or even some of the models originally outlined, which leads me to believe the storms that do pop up could be a bit more intense here. Right now I'm thinking hail will be the primary threat.