Wednesday February 3rd Potentially Significant Winter Storm

Next week's storm is beginning to look very interesting in quite a few different model runs. Reason being? The freezing line is becoming very pronounced, and beginning to appear further and further south with each run.

The last couple GFS runs are where this has become most apparent, but the ECMWF is also showing the potential for significant snowfall in northern lower Michigan and the U.P. - we're talking 12-18"

Last night's run:

This morning's run:

Toward central lower Michigan, things stop being so cut and dry. Right now the models are indicating a very pronounced freezing line where precipitation modes will change very quickly. This does not bode particularly well for this region (the Tri-Cities, thumb, and pretty much everywhere else between Bay County and I-69). This typically means that sleet or freezing rain may be a factor, and with a storm this powerful, throwing that into the mix can mean havoc. I'll keep watching and hoping that the snow line either continues to dip south (snow) or moves back into line with what the models were previously forecasting (warm air, rain). A significant amount of snow would be much more preferable to an ice storm.

Temperatures could rise as high as 55° in some parts of Michigan on Wednesday

A couple rounds of precipitations will be on track for Michigan this week. The first will be Monday, at which time a moderate disturbance will pass through. Right now temperatures continue to look like they'll be well above freezing, which should lead to rain being the main precipitation mode. Most of the moisture with this system looks to be in the warm sector, so it's likely that the rain will be well over by the time colder temps on the back side of the storm begin to build in.

The second storm looks to arrive Wednesday, and it's going to be bringing some potentially remarkable weather with it.

GFS forecast for 1:00AM EST Wednesday

The most amazing thing about this to me is the timing. The GFS is predicting that this storm will arrive in the early to mid morning hours of Wednesday. Normally, temperatures at those times are our daily lows, but the model is predicting temperatures in the 50s - possibly even 55°+ in some parts of extreme SE lower Michigan. Obviously, this is going to mean snow is pretty much out, and I wouldn't even rule out a rumble of thunder. A multi-day severe weather event looks to be on deck in the south due to these systems, which means that this storm is going to suck up ample moisture and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico.

Clipper system to bring snow to Michigan tomorrow

An Alberta Clipper will descend from the north to bring some accumulating snow to both upper and lower Michigan within the next 36 hours. The amount of snow you get will increase the farther north you go.

Areas of the U.P. could see more than 4 inches, while I'd estimate 2-4 inches in northern lower Michigan to a line around Arenac County. Totals might be a bit higher the further west you go, too. The northern thumb and northern portion of the Saginaw Valley might see around 2 inches, though I'd imagine just an inch to an inch an a half will be the upper bound of accumulations. Little to no accumulation should occur south of I-69.

Powerful low pressure system will cross the area next week

It's been awhile since I made any posts - mainly because there's been nothing to post about! Our weather has been one of two things: a) quiet, or b) rainy/drizzly with a bit of ice. The snowbelts continue to get lake effect snows when the north winds come, but overall, mild and uneventful has been the rule for Michigan weather for the second half of January.

Confidence is growing regarding a low pressure system which will affect us next week. This low will be another Panhandle Hook and it's looking to grow quite powerful. There's a bit of concern with this system producing severe weather in the deep south, so much so that the SPC has put out a rare day 7 15% risk delineation for areas in and around the Mississippi delta. The models are a bit divided in timing. The GFS has the storm system arriving late Sunday into Monday, while the latest two ECMWFs actually push the system back to Tuesday or even Wednesday. Regardless of time of arrival, both models are predicting the same scenario that has occurred with the last two or three of these storms - warm, moist air dominating the center of the low, and little chance of significant snowfall for Michigan as a result. Rain looks to be the main precipitation mode we can expect at this point, with areas of freezing rain or sleet not entirely out of the question, either.

More on this one as it develops, but if past trends are any indication, we're going to see just another rainy, headache-inducing mess and little significant snowfall.

D.C.'s Nightmare Scenario - Look no further than this morning's GFS

Holy crap.

This picture is beyond a worst-case scenario for Washington D.C. in terms of winter disasters - this is a potential nightmare scenario. This morning's GFS is predicting 55 inches of snow in/around the nation's capital. That's 5 inches shy of FIVE FEET - a potential year's worth of snow in one storm.

The NAM is still putting out significantly less for the nation's capital and moving the storm track further north, slamming south central Pennsylvania and New York/New Jersey with over 3 feet of snow. It remains to be seen which track will pan out and where the bullseye will be, but this is with a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio which means if temperatures are less than 30° at any point the ratio could be more like 12:1. Heavy, wet snow. God help them.

I swear, if I didn't know better, I'd say this storm was engineered to cause maximum havoc for the most major cities in our country. These models' forecasts are like something out of a disaster training seminar or a Discovery Channel "what-if" documentary. If you told me that this was going to happen a week or two ago I'd have said you were watching too many movies.

East Coast's Major Blizzard - Will it happen?

I'm not sure how many people outside of the east coast will remember last year's events. A major blizzard was forecast for Massachusetts and New York, and the response was quite proportional considering what was being forecast. A preemptive state of emergency was declared, and most commerce stopped as businesses, banks, and government offices closed, anticipating very severe winter weather.

It did not happen. Forecasters were left to explain why the models were so very wrong. This was right around the time the "GFS parallel" replaced the older version of the GFS model. I don't recall all of the technical details of the forecast, but I know that the biggest issue was that the storm was very pronounced, and tracked much further east than what was being forecast. It was one of those "all-or-nothing" situations - areas of Massachusetts (specifically, Cape Cod) did receive a ton of snow, and New York received quite a bit, too, but nowhere near as much as what was originally forecast. Again, this had everything to do with track and not the storm's intensity.

This time, like last time, things look very "certain" as to the models. A ridiculous amount of snow is being forecast by essentially all models including the high-res short terms:

This forecast is similar to last year's in terms of the severity of snowfall totals being predicted. The nation's capital, as well as New York City, certain areas of Maryland, New Jersey, northern Virginia and West Virginia, and southeastern Pennsylvania may see between two to three feet of new snow by the time this storm passes. That qualifies as a major blizzard, especially when you factor in that the storm is predicted to amplify and deepen, which will cause wind gusts > 35mph (blizzard criteria). A Blizzard Watch is in effect for the nation's capital and portions of eastern Maryland and Virginia, as well as New York City, Long Island and Newark NJ, while winter storm watches and warnings are in effect pretty much everywhere else in the storm's predicted track. 

So the question remains: will it happen? Or will it fizzle like last year?

In my opinion, this one looks a GREAT DEAL more concrete than the storm that was predicted last year. While the general consensus of the models last year was pretty good for a major blizzard 48 hours in advance, roughly 36 hours in advance models began to diverge a great deal. There were also outliers that predicted exactly what would happen as early as 40-50 hours in advance. This time around, pretty much all of the models are in agreement, including the short terms which are just now beginning to come in. Warnings have gone out for a large swath of the country already, and there are very few tracks that the storm can take that would deviate from where the models are saying the greatest amount of snow would fall. 

Confidence on this one is high. That doesn't mean lightning can't strike twice, and the models won't be hideously wrong once again. However, in my opinion, the chances of that happening are very, very slim. At this point, the northeast needs to take this one seriously. Communities will be buried, and damage to property such as collapsing roofs and widespread power outages are a real possibility. It's very likely that no travel will be possible for at least two days after the storm, though those Yankees are as hearty as us Michiganders, so you never know just how quickly they'll have things cleaned up out there. 

While the east coast is getting all the attention, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, North and South Carolina also need to batten down the hatches for this one. Warnings are already in effect in these states, and flood warnings/advisories are also posted along the Mississippi for the length of the entire Missouri border. This will likely be an epic week of winter weather for many states in the union.

Meanwhile, Michigan remains devoid of significant snowfall in the forecast outside of the snowbelts. A relatively moisture-starved and weak Panhandle Hook looks to strike by next Tuesday. This could deepen and become a significant storm, but for now none of the models are predicting anything heroic. The storm could even raise temperatures above freezing and precipitation could wind up falling as rain, just as it has for the last three of these. Another cold blast would follow, which would make for more lake effect snow for the snowbelts. Leaving the "questionable" outlook up for now, as the forecast is just too vague to make any decent predictions for accumulation totals at this point.

Forecast changes again - Models now unite *against* snow

Well, the idea was nice while it lasted. I'm beginning to wonder if a big snow storm is in the cards this year - every time a storm comes up from the south, warm air seems to dominate the scene. The exception was the November 21st storm. Every storm since has carried far too much warm air to produce much snow in southeast Michigan. The north and the snowbelts, of course, are a different story, and that looks to be the case again with this particular storm, with 3-6 inches likely in the northern counties of lower Michigan.

The big wildcard is of course the chance of freezing rain that the latest NAM run is putting out for central lower MI. From this image, it looks like a fairly decent chance. I'll keep watching as the situation progresses and hopefully things will get more clear by tomorrow.

January 16th-17th Potentially Significant Winter Storm - All models in lockstep

The models were a disorganized mess less than 24 hours ago, but are now very close in agreement regarding this weekend's weather.

The ECMWF is still a bit quicker than the GFS, predicting a storm that strikes earlier, but even that solution delivers what looks to be some impressive hourly snowfall totals. The ECMWF's solution also seems to favor SE lower Michigan for heavy snow whereas the GFS is currently favoring the northern end a bit more (both models seem to coat the thumb). 

This is, of course, all still up in the air, but this is by a wide margin the most I've seen the mid-to-long-range models agree about a storm yet this year. Timing may be everything. If the warm sector passes through at night, when temperatures are still below freezing, it should be an all-snow event. The wildcard will be whether or not mid-level temps (even into the overnight) stay below freezing; if they don't, we could get sleet. I'm not too concerned about freezing rain at this point. 

Truly, with what the models are putting out right now, I'd be willing to bet on snow . If I had to put my confidence to a percentage, I'd say it's about 60% likely. We'll see what the models hold in store for tomorrow, but with 3+ runs of consistency between two normally very argumentative mathematical equations, things would have to change drastically for this one to not manifest. Short range models are already able to see the birth of this storm, and tomorrow they may be able to help pinpoint a track and timing as well. If they fall in line and there's no major deviations by either the GFS or ECMWF, I fully expect a winter storm watch to be issued as early as Wednesday afternoon.

Winter Storm Warning for snowbelt - Winter Weather Advisory along/south of US 10

More winter storm headlines are in effect as the approaching clipper system looks to make for miserable travel in the southern half of the state yet again. This would be one of the more "high end" advisories in my opinion, as the low 2-4 inches of additional snow in the advisory area is going to be complimented by winds in the 35-45mph range. Those winds on their own meet blizzard criteria; white out conditions will be a real possibility, especially in the thumb area where conditions are going to be a bit better for more intense snow squalls than elsewhere.

While there are no headlines for windchills at the moment, I'd be concerned about them. Dress especially warmly if you're going to be out tonight, and stay off the roadways after midnight if possible.

This weekend/next week - Potential winter storm

Now onto the more interesting topic. Both the ECMWF and GFS are predicting another Panhandle Hook-style storm system to develop this week and strike us by either Saturday or Sunday, depending on which run you're looking at. The ECMWF's solution is definitely more interesting right now than the last few GFS runs, to say the least. While the GFS has alternated between solutions with cold temperatures, which drop 6-7 inches of snow across Michigan, and solutions with warm temperatures, which would produce either a messy icy mix or flat-out rain, the ECMWF has consistently predicted snow over the last two of its runs.

This is from this morning's run, and those are some impressive snowfall rates being predicted to strike this coming Friday night into Saturday over many portions of the state. But it has NOTHING on yesterday's run, which predicts a more powerful storm which wouldn't strike until Saturday night:

Of course, this one is a bit insane in terms of snowfall rates and therefore should probably not be trusted. I do think that the ECMWF is a bit more reliable in predicting snowfall events than the GFS, however. It has predicted the last few storms fairly well. With this winter being what it is, though, who knows where that freezing line will be. One can only hope we don't wind up with more ice or sleet to deal with.

With the models being fairly inconsistent with both each other and different runs, we can't bet on anything just yet. Just be aware that this past weekend's storm is likely not the last one we've seen this winter.

This week - Lake Effect Snow, Clipper Systems, and Wind Chills

This is part one of two regarding the ongoing winter drama in Michigan. First comes the easy forecast.

Our old friend, the Polar Vortex, is going to arrive this week for a visit, bringing some ridiculously cold temperatures in its wake. However, it isn't going to affect us quite as roughly as it has in the previous two years for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that it hasn't quite dropped as far south as it did last year and in 2014. Those dips were especially severe and essentially transplanted the air usually fixed at the North Pole to the north central U.S. That's not what's happening this time around. As such, this type of pattern is typical at this time of year and we should expect lows in the single digits at least a few times in any typical Michigan winter. The other factor is that we're insulated by some very, very warm lakes. With that in mind, we're going to see some major lake effect snow this week in the snowbelts and possibly beyond, depending on how strong the winds get. Winter storm watches and advisories have been posted in various locations within the snowbelts already.

Aside from lake effect, the first two Alberta Clippers of the year are going to bring us more traditional snow. These small, generally weak low pressure systems are named as such because they descend from the Alberta province of Canada, and tend to drop 2-4 inches of snow in various locations of Michigan in their wake. Both are forecast to strike us directly, with the first looking a bit more organized than the second.

GFS guidance showing just how cold it could get in our area this week. Keep in mind that this does not include wind chills.

The NAM forecasts slightly warmer temperatures, but only just that.

The winds themselves will be the primary concern, as sub-zero windchills are almost a certainty in this type of pattern. Frostbite will be a danger for those working at night in these conditions, so if your job will have you outside during the worst of these lows, be sure to take the appropriate precautions.

Snow to taper off by noon, but additional 2-4 inches for SE MI probable along with ice

Road conditions are going to be nothing short of miserable across the state today. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled for all except the northern counties, however the advisory has been expanded to include most counties in SE Michigan. Not only has all of the rain that fell yesterday frozen, but an additional 2-4 inches of snow is likely to fall by 1PM.

Stay off the roads if possible. Today is a day to just sit at home and relax.

Storm beginning to pick up steam - snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour for northern/western counties

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the northern half and western third of the lower peninsula. Snowfall rates of 1" per hour are beginning to build into the area. The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for the situation:

Click the image for more detailed information.

Avoid traveling over the next day if you can if you're in the warning areas. The eastern third shouldn't have too much trouble, but stay safe.

Winter Storm Watch Issued for all but SE lower Michigan

UPDATE: This watch has been expanded to include all counties in lower Michigan except for the Thumb and SE Michigan.

Text of the watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE TRI CITIES...

MIZ047-048-053-090930-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.160110T0000Z-160110T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW
329 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

 * THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHARP CUT OFF BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW AND
   RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
   SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
   THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.

 * MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
   WILL FALL INTO THE 20S UNDER NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
   WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP
   TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
   DIGITS.

IMPACTS...

 * TRAVEL MAY BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED AND SLICK
   ROADS.

 * THE SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE QUITE HEAVY...LEADING TO
   SOME POSSIBLE MINOR TREE DAMAGE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   THE LATEST FORECASTS.

VIDEO POST - Some sleet mixing in with the rain falling today

Here's a brief video I shot about 15 minutes ago as I came back into town from a business trip to Lapeer.

It's still well above freezing here in Pigeon, so I'm hoping surface temperatures stay there and we won't wind up with any freezing rain to speak of.

Making sense of what's coming - Jan 10-14th Winter Storm and Lake Effect Snow Event

Sunday's storm is looking more and more like it's going to be all snow, which means we're going to probably see a great deal of snow from it. It's way too early to tell how much, as snow to liquid ratios are going to be in question. Where the freezing line sits is going to be a big deal in terms of who sees how much snow, but I wouldn't be surprised if 6-10" affect portions of the state.

The bigger deal is that after the storm passes, we're not going to be done seeing snow until probably Thursday. This is because the very powerful arctic blast that's going to come behind the storm is going to flow over the Great Lakes which are nearly unprecedentedly warm.

The effect is going to be one that I cannot yet say.

The latest GFS runs forecast this amount of snow by Thursday. The 10:1 snow to liquid ratio used in this image is undoubtedly flawed; the deep freezing arctic temperatures are going to make the ratio closer to 12:1, 15:1... perhaps even 20:1. The "mini storms" which form over the lakes (called "lake induced mesoscale convective voritices") form in the same manner that thunderstorms do. When the temperature differential is going to be this big, you get the same type of explosive potential that you see in severe thunderstorms. You're not going to see hail and tornadoes like you do with severe thunderstorms, but you will see torrential amounts of precipitation fall in relatively unpredictable places. That precipitation will be all snow.

The big kicker is that with lake temperatures being what they are, those storms can grow much bigger and stronger, and can survive farther inland. That means that significant lake effect snow might even occur outside the snowbelts. Those within will unquestionably be buried. As to how much snow to expect, the jury is still out. We could break records. We could see a decent amount but still stay within reason. Or we could wind up seeing more what the GFS is predicting.

The fact is this: do not yet buy into any snow predictor images you see floating around the internet that go beyond 48 hours. Forecasting snow of this type is like trying to plot exactly where thunderstorms will develop 48 hours in advance - you can assign a general risk area, and even predict what hazards people within the area are likely to face, but you cannot assign an exact number nor even have high confidence until a couple days out from the event at the very least. 

To summarize:

• Begin preparations for a significant winter storm regardless of where you may live in the state.
• If you do live in the snowbelts, make preparations for a severe blizzard.
• The snow will not begin until Sunday. The initial storm could drop anywhere from 4-6" to 6-10" depending on snow to liquid ratios.
• Lake effect snow will begin in the wake of the storm. These type of snow squalls will form similarly to thunderstorms making it very difficult to predict exactly who will see the most snow and just how much will fall.

Hallelujah! Freezing rain looking like it won't be a problem Friday

Hey, a positive post!

It looks as though there'll be very little chance of freezing rain making a huge impact this Friday, as the storm will likely bring pure liquid precipitation with perhaps a bit of ice here and there. Jury's still out on the Sunday storm's mode. More as it develops.

Latest NAM run looks better regarding freezing rain for Michigan, however...

...Ontario and New York might get a hell of an ice storm.

I don't wish this kinda crap on anyone. Hopefully further forecasts will reduce the chance of freezing rain for all. We're also by no means out of the woods yet on this one - it still could go either way. I'm not going to adjust the outlook until a few more models come online.

Two storms after all!? Potentially major monkey wrench thrown in for Sunday

There has been a major development in the last few runs of the GFS forecast model.

Take a look at this latest run. It's predicting surface cyclogenesis in the Texas Panhandle by Friday afternoon. This is as the Friday/Saturday storm makes its way into Michigan. This means that by Sunday:

...another storm system could be targeting our area. Once again, it's as clear as mud as to what precipitation mode would be. For now, it looks like rain, and it looks like it'd be more than what we get Friday. It most certainly could be snow, though. It's going to be an interesting weekend to say the least.

Very heavy lake effect snow likely in the wake of weekend storm

Regardless of what precipitation mode this weekend's upcoming storm will bring to the rest of us, those in the snowbelts and possibly even into west-central lower Michigan may be either delighted or mortified to hear about what's coming next.

The ECMWF (along with other models) is predicting a blockbuster lake effect snow to fall on Sunday, January 10th. We're talking several feet possible in some areas.

This run in particular indicates snowfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches (3-4cm) per hour. But - and this is the big but - that's assuming a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. One of the reasons lake effect snows tend to be so much more impressive than the typical snowstorm is that the snow to liquid ratio is usually higher, as temperatures are colder. Arctic blasts over warm lakes are what produce these snows, and when you have temperatures in the 20s or even the teens, you wind up with snow to liquid ratios which are more like 12:1 or even 15:1. That will make for some very impressive snowfall totals. Winter storm warnings are almost a given regardless of the scenario.

Other models are showing some differences in which areas will receive the most snow. Mark Torregrossa has put together an excellent preliminary snow predictor for the weekend, which you can see below:

Courtesy of Mark Torregrossa

Be sure to check out his full post at MLive.com for more information on what makes this setup so powerful for lake effect snow.

Not liking what I'm seeing regarding upcoming storm AT ALL

Here we go again. Short range models are beginning to see the upcoming storm. The GFS and ECMWF still predict the 9th as the initial strike date, though the NAM is predicting that we'll start to be affected by this storm on the 8th. I'll let the images below speak for themselves:

This also shows up in the NAM's "precipitation type" forecast:

Not good at all. This storm looks like it could be much more nasty in terms of freezing rain than the last one did, and temperatures should plummet once it passes. Holding out hope that this is not what happens and that we'll wind up just seeing sleet again.

Heavy lake effect snow to fall in some parts of the thumb, SE Michigan

Lake effect winter storm warnings are in effect for Sanilac and St. Clair counties for 4-8" of fluffy snow. Temperatures are definitely at the point where snowfall ratios will be 12-15:1, which should enhance the accumulation totals.

The precipitation mode of the storm coming at the end of the week is still highly questionable. I'll post more updates as things come into focus, but for now it's all clear as mud. 

Snowless winter may continue - Jan 9-10th storm may be wash

Few things are clear according to latest model data regarding the upcoming storm save for one thing: it doesn't appear likely that the precipitation mode will be snow anymore.

Both the ECMWF and GFS are going with this forecast. That leaves us with potential rain, freezing rain, sleet, or nothing at all. The track of the storm in the latest GFS run appears to be much more westerly than previous runs, which means we'll likely wind up being in the warm sector, or it may even miss us entirely (not very likely, but possible). Temperatures may rise all the way to the 40s in some areas. Not very good for winter sports fans, or anyone who just wanted some snow to complement an otherwise wet and dreary winter.

To make matters even worse, I still think we may be in for quite a cold blast after the storm passes, which means a) any liquid left over will freeze, and b) sub-zero windchills possible. Not what I had hoped for at all. =\