Friday, January 22, 2016

D.C.'s Nightmare Scenario - Look no further than this morning's GFS

Holy crap.

This picture is beyond a worst-case scenario for Washington D.C. in terms of winter disasters - this is a potential nightmare scenario. This morning's GFS is predicting 55 inches of snow in/around the nation's capital. That's 5 inches shy of FIVE FEET - a potential year's worth of snow in one storm.

The NAM is still putting out significantly less for the nation's capital and moving the storm track further north, slamming south central Pennsylvania and New York/New Jersey with over 3 feet of snow. It remains to be seen which track will pan out and where the bullseye will be, but this is with a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio which means if temperatures are less than 30° at any point the ratio could be more like 12:1. Heavy, wet snow. God help them.

I swear, if I didn't know better, I'd say this storm was engineered to cause maximum havoc for the most major cities in our country. These models' forecasts are like something out of a disaster training seminar or a Discovery Channel "what-if" documentary. If you told me that this was going to happen a week or two ago I'd have said you were watching too many movies.

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