Wednesday February 3rd Potentially Significant Winter Storm

Next week's storm is beginning to look very interesting in quite a few different model runs. Reason being? The freezing line is becoming very pronounced, and beginning to appear further and further south with each run.

The last couple GFS runs are where this has become most apparent, but the ECMWF is also showing the potential for significant snowfall in northern lower Michigan and the U.P. - we're talking 12-18"

Last night's run:

This morning's run:

Toward central lower Michigan, things stop being so cut and dry. Right now the models are indicating a very pronounced freezing line where precipitation modes will change very quickly. This does not bode particularly well for this region (the Tri-Cities, thumb, and pretty much everywhere else between Bay County and I-69). This typically means that sleet or freezing rain may be a factor, and with a storm this powerful, throwing that into the mix can mean havoc. I'll keep watching and hoping that the snow line either continues to dip south (snow) or moves back into line with what the models were previously forecasting (warm air, rain). A significant amount of snow would be much more preferable to an ice storm.