January 16th-17th Potentially Significant Winter Storm - All models in lockstep

The models were a disorganized mess less than 24 hours ago, but are now very close in agreement regarding this weekend's weather.

The ECMWF is still a bit quicker than the GFS, predicting a storm that strikes earlier, but even that solution delivers what looks to be some impressive hourly snowfall totals. The ECMWF's solution also seems to favor SE lower Michigan for heavy snow whereas the GFS is currently favoring the northern end a bit more (both models seem to coat the thumb). 

This is, of course, all still up in the air, but this is by a wide margin the most I've seen the mid-to-long-range models agree about a storm yet this year. Timing may be everything. If the warm sector passes through at night, when temperatures are still below freezing, it should be an all-snow event. The wildcard will be whether or not mid-level temps (even into the overnight) stay below freezing; if they don't, we could get sleet. I'm not too concerned about freezing rain at this point. 

Truly, with what the models are putting out right now, I'd be willing to bet on snow . If I had to put my confidence to a percentage, I'd say it's about 60% likely. We'll see what the models hold in store for tomorrow, but with 3+ runs of consistency between two normally very argumentative mathematical equations, things would have to change drastically for this one to not manifest. Short range models are already able to see the birth of this storm, and tomorrow they may be able to help pinpoint a track and timing as well. If they fall in line and there's no major deviations by either the GFS or ECMWF, I fully expect a winter storm watch to be issued as early as Wednesday afternoon.