Powerful low pressure system will cross the area next week

It's been awhile since I made any posts - mainly because there's been nothing to post about! Our weather has been one of two things: a) quiet, or b) rainy/drizzly with a bit of ice. The snowbelts continue to get lake effect snows when the north winds come, but overall, mild and uneventful has been the rule for Michigan weather for the second half of January.

Confidence is growing regarding a low pressure system which will affect us next week. This low will be another Panhandle Hook and it's looking to grow quite powerful. There's a bit of concern with this system producing severe weather in the deep south, so much so that the SPC has put out a rare day 7 15% risk delineation for areas in and around the Mississippi delta. The models are a bit divided in timing. The GFS has the storm system arriving late Sunday into Monday, while the latest two ECMWFs actually push the system back to Tuesday or even Wednesday. Regardless of time of arrival, both models are predicting the same scenario that has occurred with the last two or three of these storms - warm, moist air dominating the center of the low, and little chance of significant snowfall for Michigan as a result. Rain looks to be the main precipitation mode we can expect at this point, with areas of freezing rain or sleet not entirely out of the question, either.

More on this one as it develops, but if past trends are any indication, we're going to see just another rainy, headache-inducing mess and little significant snowfall.