East Coast's Major Blizzard - Will it happen?

I'm not sure how many people outside of the east coast will remember last year's events. A major blizzard was forecast for Massachusetts and New York, and the response was quite proportional considering what was being forecast. A preemptive state of emergency was declared, and most commerce stopped as businesses, banks, and government offices closed, anticipating very severe winter weather.

It did not happen. Forecasters were left to explain why the models were so very wrong. This was right around the time the "GFS parallel" replaced the older version of the GFS model. I don't recall all of the technical details of the forecast, but I know that the biggest issue was that the storm was very pronounced, and tracked much further east than what was being forecast. It was one of those "all-or-nothing" situations - areas of Massachusetts (specifically, Cape Cod) did receive a ton of snow, and New York received quite a bit, too, but nowhere near as much as what was originally forecast. Again, this had everything to do with track and not the storm's intensity.

This time, like last time, things look very "certain" as to the models. A ridiculous amount of snow is being forecast by essentially all models including the high-res short terms:

This forecast is similar to last year's in terms of the severity of snowfall totals being predicted. The nation's capital, as well as New York City, certain areas of Maryland, New Jersey, northern Virginia and West Virginia, and southeastern Pennsylvania may see between two to three feet of new snow by the time this storm passes. That qualifies as a major blizzard, especially when you factor in that the storm is predicted to amplify and deepen, which will cause wind gusts > 35mph (blizzard criteria). A Blizzard Watch is in effect for the nation's capital and portions of eastern Maryland and Virginia, as well as New York City, Long Island and Newark NJ, while winter storm watches and warnings are in effect pretty much everywhere else in the storm's predicted track. 

So the question remains: will it happen? Or will it fizzle like last year?

In my opinion, this one looks a GREAT DEAL more concrete than the storm that was predicted last year. While the general consensus of the models last year was pretty good for a major blizzard 48 hours in advance, roughly 36 hours in advance models began to diverge a great deal. There were also outliers that predicted exactly what would happen as early as 40-50 hours in advance. This time around, pretty much all of the models are in agreement, including the short terms which are just now beginning to come in. Warnings have gone out for a large swath of the country already, and there are very few tracks that the storm can take that would deviate from where the models are saying the greatest amount of snow would fall. 

Confidence on this one is high. That doesn't mean lightning can't strike twice, and the models won't be hideously wrong once again. However, in my opinion, the chances of that happening are very, very slim. At this point, the northeast needs to take this one seriously. Communities will be buried, and damage to property such as collapsing roofs and widespread power outages are a real possibility. It's very likely that no travel will be possible for at least two days after the storm, though those Yankees are as hearty as us Michiganders, so you never know just how quickly they'll have things cleaned up out there. 

While the east coast is getting all the attention, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, North and South Carolina also need to batten down the hatches for this one. Warnings are already in effect in these states, and flood warnings/advisories are also posted along the Mississippi for the length of the entire Missouri border. This will likely be an epic week of winter weather for many states in the union.

Meanwhile, Michigan remains devoid of significant snowfall in the forecast outside of the snowbelts. A relatively moisture-starved and weak Panhandle Hook looks to strike by next Tuesday. This could deepen and become a significant storm, but for now none of the models are predicting anything heroic. The storm could even raise temperatures above freezing and precipitation could wind up falling as rain, just as it has for the last three of these. Another cold blast would follow, which would make for more lake effect snow for the snowbelts. Leaving the "questionable" outlook up for now, as the forecast is just too vague to make any decent predictions for accumulation totals at this point.