This week - Lake Effect Snow, Clipper Systems, and Wind Chills

This is part one of two regarding the ongoing winter drama in Michigan. First comes the easy forecast.

Our old friend, the Polar Vortex, is going to arrive this week for a visit, bringing some ridiculously cold temperatures in its wake. However, it isn't going to affect us quite as roughly as it has in the previous two years for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that it hasn't quite dropped as far south as it did last year and in 2014. Those dips were especially severe and essentially transplanted the air usually fixed at the North Pole to the north central U.S. That's not what's happening this time around. As such, this type of pattern is typical at this time of year and we should expect lows in the single digits at least a few times in any typical Michigan winter. The other factor is that we're insulated by some very, very warm lakes. With that in mind, we're going to see some major lake effect snow this week in the snowbelts and possibly beyond, depending on how strong the winds get. Winter storm watches and advisories have been posted in various locations within the snowbelts already.

Aside from lake effect, the first two Alberta Clippers of the year are going to bring us more traditional snow. These small, generally weak low pressure systems are named as such because they descend from the Alberta province of Canada, and tend to drop 2-4 inches of snow in various locations of Michigan in their wake. Both are forecast to strike us directly, with the first looking a bit more organized than the second.

GFS guidance showing just how cold it could get in our area this week. Keep in mind that this does not include wind chills.

The NAM forecasts slightly warmer temperatures, but only just that.

The winds themselves will be the primary concern, as sub-zero windchills are almost a certainty in this type of pattern. Frostbite will be a danger for those working at night in these conditions, so if your job will have you outside during the worst of these lows, be sure to take the appropriate precautions.