Unless you count the above normal temperatures and the completely baffling level of dryness, it has been quite the uneventful summer in Michigan, weatherwise. Save for two Fridays ago, we've really had no significant nor widespread severe storm days thus far, and truly we've been devoid of even meaningful variety in our forecasts. Days which looked like they could be active have for the most part been duds, and overall predictability is quite low.
It's tough to say that this is going to change, at least for me, at this point. Watching the models, I see similar patterns to what I've been seeing since the end of May: potential for big storms. But that's the key word: potential. A couple of weeks back, I was all but certain we were going to be seeing a meaningful thunderstorm event in Michigan, and it failed to materialize in epic fashion. Some areas to the south and extreme east did see some thunder, but it was hardly noteworthy, and the central portion of the lower peninsula in particular has missed out on just about everything. We are deep into drought at this point, and we're likely to be looking at drier than normal conditions until the fall at the very least. Will we be as dry as June? Probably not. It would take incredible bad luck for this to happen (especially in the coming week), and I just can't imagine (or perhaps just don't want to) the systems refusing to drop any rain over our areas the way they did in June. With that in mind, the overall pattern remains what it is, and it very well COULD be another 1988-style summer.
Some good news is that the pattern forming is a bit more extreme than the one in June. The flow of the jet stream is similar, but this time around a torrid, ridiculously hot pattern is building into the central midwest. We're talking heat levels that are prompting warnings in areas that routinely see 100°+ heat indices each summer. 115-120° heat indices are not only possible but likely in those areas this week. These are extremely dangerous levels of heat that can be life threatening, so if you plan to be in these areas or know someone who is, spread the word of caution. Michigan's position will be just outside this area of heat, in the shadow of the jet stream flowing from northwest to southeast. Normally, I'd say that this would mean a high likelihood of severe weather in the coming days. With the year being what it is, however, I'm going to take a more measured approach. Could we see severe weather? Absolutely. Will we? I'm actually doubtful.
The reason is that I'm seeing a lot of the same behavior out of this upcoming system that I've seen in the past. The system will build up a lot of energy just to our north and west, probably ignite some furious thunderstorms, and then they will likely fizzle out in epic fashion just as they reach Michigan. This is best shown by the latest NAM model. The western U.P. could see some impressive storms, but the rest of us are going to be lucky if they last long enough to dump any meaningful rain. Convective turnover and subsequent capping has been the villain of the season in Michigan, and it doesn't appear that anything's changing even with the additional energy.
Perhaps nature will defy the model predictions and my overall gut feeling on this one, but each and every time I think that we're settling into a more rainy pattern, I'm kicked in the teeth. The shoe has to land on the other foot sooner or later, but I'm now of the opinion that it will be later.
No comments:
Post a Comment