Some thunderstorms are moving through the state this afternoon but it doesn't look like anything truly nasty will come from the line. An official 20% chance of severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until this evening per mesoscale discussion, though at this point I think the chances are lower. The good news is that rain chances may be on the rise as the line seems to be holding together well.
However, tomorrow afternoon could be a different story. A slight risk of severe weather has been issued by the SPC for the majority of Michigan, both upper and lower.
The models are diverging a bit on this one. The 12z NAM puts the nastiest weather through Mid Michigan once again, while the 18z run confines very nasty weather to the southernmost portion of the state. The two runs can be compared below:
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| Each dark green swath represents the path of a potentially severe thunderstorm that the model predicts will strike. |
With this divergence, it's tough to say where the biggest storms will be tomorrow until more runs come in and more data can be obtained. I suspect that tomorrow will yield another watch.
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