Chance of thunderstorms today looks better, potentially widespread rain tomorrow, Friday

Chances for precipitation in the lower peninsula look to be increasing as more models come out. The SPC continues its marginal risk for the northern half of the lower peninsula, and I'm now seeing more evidence in the models of potential thunderstorm development in the state than yesterday when the marginal risk covered the entire region. To that end I've actually included the Thumb area in a marginal risk in my outlook as a pop-up severe storm can't be ruled out during peak heating time, per model guidance.

Some models are suggesting that tomorrow afternoon may be quite active for the southernmost portion of the state, while others are downplaying the northward extent of the activity/potential. I currently don't think there's much of a threat for severe weather in Michigan tomorrow per se, so I'm matching the SPC's current outlook of slight risk for extreme southwest and marginal for most of the rest. 

Friday is still a crapshoot depending on what happens today and tomorrow. I'm still thinking the eastern portion of the state could be looking at some severe weather based on the latest models, especially the high-res ones. I'm going to maintain my isolated/severe likely outlook for now pending the midday run. Right now the NAM4KM has thunderstorms popping up over western lower MI on Friday at around 2PM. These would likely gain strength as the front moved east in an increasingly unstable and sheared environment.