Severe weather chances BACK ON for tomorrow afternoon, especially for northern lower MI and the Thumb

A severe thunderstorm warning is currently in effect for the Houghton Lake and St. Helen areas of Roscommon County as a powerful cluster of storms moves through the area. Some rather strong storms are also present north of Grand Rapids, in an east/west line between Shelby and Big Rapids. These storms will continue to propagate eastward, and a great deal of the lower peninsula could (finally) be wet by tomorrow morning.

...Which leads me to an important conclusion about tomorrow, and is also the reason that the SPC has a great swath of lower Michigan now under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow as well. This system has picked up some steam.

By 9AM tomorrow morning, the rain should be off to the east and skies should be clear. This means that most of the full power of the day's sun should arrive to increase instability levels. Some models are showing very high instability levels, but NWS Detroit currently estimates things to top out at around 2000j/kg of SBCAPE by tomorrow afternoon. This is still more than enough instability to power thunderstorms, and with the system amping up in terms of power there are signs that the rockets could actually launch this time around.

The NAM4KM in particular is signalling some intense thunderstorm potential. It's forecasting supercells with some very powerful rotating updrafts, which could signal a tornado threat. These would then merge into a line and bow outward as they become more forward dominated, which would present a very strong damaging wind threat. The track of the storms being predicted is evident in the pictures above.

Two runs of this model have made this prediction, and the Rapid Refresh looks to be setting up a similar scenario.

40-50kts of bulk shear should provide more than enough horsepower to keep things running strong. Storms are forecast to ignite around 2-3PM across the area, which would mean they'd intensify as peak heating hours arrive. My hope is that this actually pans out this time, as a great deal of Mid Michigan is officially under a moderate drought (see image below). We absolutely positively need nt just rain, but thunderstorms that bring intense rainfall in order to turn things around.

Let's make this happen this time, Mother Nature! We need water!