Friday looks like the best shot at storms

I'm going to start off by giving my opinion: I do not agree with the SPC's current marginal risk status assigned for Michigan tomorrow - I simply do not believe we're looking at any severe hazards, and that rain, let alone strong storms, will be hard pressed to survive the night into our area. It's much more likely that the storms out west will dip south through Illinois and skip Michigan completely, leaving only a few chance showers for our region until Thursday.

The jury is out on Thursday. The GFS and lower res NAM models indicate widespread rain present over the lower peninsula, though the higher res NAM4KM indicates nothing of the sort. It'll be interesting to see what the higher res models come in with over the next few hours. Keep in mind that the GFS continues to predict widespread rain for tomorrow, so I don't know if I trust its forecast much right now.

Friday, for now, definitely looks more interesting. The classic hallmarks of a severe thunderstorm-producing system are all present in the forecast. That said, this has happened before this year, and nothing has panned out, so this outlook is tentative at best. I think it's safe to assume a decent chance of strong to severe storms in at least the eastern part of the state on Friday afternoon.

Temperatures are definitely tempered back from what was earlier predicted, approaching if not quite making it to 90°. Dewpoints will likely be around 70°, making a for a very humid end of the week.