Well, here we go again with another teaser. One of two things are going to happen within the next week: we're either going to sink into drought, or we're going to break our dry snap in an epic fashion.
The GFS in particular looks very promising, if not a little concerning. I'd be much more concerned if the patterns had favored us for storms as of late. This pattern is looking similar to what I was watching in the middle of June, when everything started looking like it was going to explode, but then decided to fizzle out and skip Michigan. It also shares some characteristics to what I was looking at toward the end of June in that, should it manifest, it could be a multi-day severe weather event. Keep in mind that multi-day doesn't necessarily mean multiple days in Michigan, or even one day in Michigan, but that potential is definitely there.
First up let's talk
temperatures record highs. Fact: we're looking at multiple 90° days here. Even the usually temperature conservative ECMWF is throwing 90s around like they're nothing. And when I say multiple I mean a potential four-to-five day stretch. We have a very legitimate shot at 100°+ on one or two of those days. I see no relief on the horizon until the 13th or the 14th at the earliest. This has been predicted over several consecutive model runs and by different models, so it has a very good chance of happening. 2016 may go down as one of the hottest summers in Michigan on record.
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| Yes, you're seeing that right. That's a hundred degree forecast for Monday July 11th. |
Next, let's talk dewpoints. If you shudder at the thought of 100°F weather, you may want to pack your bags and head to Canada for the next week, because the dewpoints are going to make it feel like it's much hotter - 10 to 20 degrees hotter. Widespread 70° dewpoints are almost certain, with multiple days of 75° dewpoints possible. Think that's oppressive? There's even some hits in the models that dewpoints will make a run at 80°F. Consider what that means for a moment: imagine that it's 80° outside, and there's fog as thick as pea soup. That's the amount of moisture in the forecast. 70° dewpoints are considered tropical. When you start getting higher than that, we're talking equatorial rainforest here.
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| Where you see spots of pink are where dewpoints are forecast to hit 80°. That forecast includes Detroit on Sunday. This will be tough to achieve and rather exceptional if it happens, but I do think widespread 70-75° dewpoints will be likely. |
So how about instability? Well, the GFS is predicting a sustained EML plume will make its way across the region, equating to some ridiculously steep lapse rates. With the temperatures and dewpoints predicted to be what they are, the GFS is forecasting a few days of SBCAPE exceeding 5000j/kg for pretty much the entire Great Lakes region. This is a nuclear yield in terms of energy should it be tapped into by thunderstorms, Should storms have any kind of horsepower behind them in the form of decent low/mid-level winds, it's pretty much derecho/tornado weather. There are several days forecast where it looks like the amount of shear could help produce extraordinarily strong severe thunderstorms. The questions will be: a) how much capping will be in place on each day, and b) will storms make it to Michigan?
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| Our best shot at storms should be Friday, when what's forecast to be a very strong closed low is expected to be situated over extreme western Ontario. Storms would likely take the form of an MCS out of Wisconsin. |
I think we have a good shot this time, but I've been bitten enough times by the forecast this year to say that nothing is guaranteed. I'm not going to put out any outlooks until the SPC makes more statements and more models come in. In terms of a motor, this system looks like a good V6 or V8 engine, if not quite a twin-turbocharged behemoth. In terms of fuel, it has an endless supply of gas should it be able to tap into it. The trick is getting that engine started, which hasn't happened yet this year for us.
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