Winter Storm for U.P. - Rainy mess downstate

The freezing line with this week's storm has retreated back to the north, and it places lower Michigan squarely in the warm, rainy sector of the coming storm. This means little to no snow accumulation will occur south of Arenac County, and what does occur will likely be mixed with sleet or a bit of freezing rain. The U.P. is, of course, the exception - 6-10" can be expected for most of the upper peninsula tomorrow through Wednesday, and Winter Storm Warnings are already in effect.

The good news is that the freezing rain factor doesn't look to be too serious, though northern counties in the lower peninsula may more sleet than snow according to the NAM's latest forecast.

Either way, my gut feeling is that most remaining storms this year will be like this. There's just too much warm air feeding into these things for them to produce significant snowfall for wide areas of the state this year. Should this trend continue come spring, this could lead to much warmer temperatures and significantly stronger thunderstorm development, too.