SEASONAL OUTLOOK - A cold week ahead, but summer's coming and it's going to be a whopper

NOTE: Summary at the bottom of this post.

I hear many people talking about how they're sick of the chilly weather we've been seeing over the past couple of weeks. North and east winds have been making life near the lake shore somewhat uncomfortable lately, as temperatures during the day have averaged around 45°, and when combined with the strength of the lake breezes, it can easily feel like 10-20 degrees less. Unfortunately for those who have not enjoyed this stretch of weather, it looks like it's going to stick around for another 7-10 days. But cheer up - this isn't going to last forever, and when the change comes, it's going to be quick and it's going to be dramatic. In a month or two, you may be missing this weather, especially when you're trying to sleep.

Before I get into the summer outlook, I want to first take a look at the shorter range outlook, specifically the weekend rain. 

The weekend will be not unlike the past week temperature wise, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s in most areas, and likely cooler near the lakeshore. We will have a slightly larger rain storm on our hands, though, which should drop anywhere from ¾ to an inch of rain over the southern half of lower Michigan. This rain should arrive late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

After the storm passes, temperatures are going to drop again. More chilly, plant killing nights may be ahead, too; temperatures are forecast by multiple models/runs to drop below freezing in some areas. The chill should be especially felt in areas near the lake shore as the strong high pressure system over Canada continues to make its presence felt.

Now, onto the more interesting stuff - that is, how long will this abnormal cold last? And what kind of summer are we looking at?

First, I want to talk about something called the North Atlantic Oscillation. This is another one of those wonderful oceanic phenomenon (like El Niño, a.k.a "El Niño Southern Oscillation" or ENSO) that heavily influence our seasonal weather. Unlike El Niño, the NAO is an entirely atmospheric phenomenon. It is based on the strength of two semi-permanent atmospheric features present over the Northern Atlantic ocean: an area of low pressure parked over Iceland - the Icelandic Low - and an area of high pressure similarly parked over the Azores Islands - the Azores High. When these features are strong, the NAO is considered to be in a "positive" phase. When they weaken, the NAO is considered to be in a "negative" phase.

The fact that it's been particularly strong several times this year means that the NAO is in a particularly strong positive phase. This waxes and wanes, of course; as it stands, the NAO is slightly negative right now and will likely be for the next ten days. However, this year, it has been positive more than it has been negative. That means that it's likely to return to a positive phase by the second half of May.

So what impact will a strongly positive NAO have on us this summer? 

Photo courtesy of MLive.com/Mark Torregrossa

You may have heard me and others talk about the Bermuda High. Well, this is actually the same feature as the Azores High. In late summer, the Azores High tends to drift west, and becomes the Bermuda High. The wacky thing is that this it has already drifted west, this early in the season!  When the NAO becomes positive this year, expect the Bermuda High to manifest strongly. When it forms, it will stream warm, tropical air into the eastern U.S. This has a particularly powerful impact on Michigan. Warm, moist Gulf air plows northward right into our area. During the summer, this means 90°+ days, with dewpoints sometimes reaching the mid 70s. Very hot, very humid air.

Another factor contributing to our summertime weather will be our old friend, Mr. El Niño himself. Or rather, I should say, his lacking - El Niño is quickly vanishing, and being replaced by La Niña; there is actually such a thing as a La Niña Watch, and it has recently been issued. Looking at the image above, you can just begin to see hints of the orange colors of El Niño beginning to fade to blue around the west coast of South America. This is a sure fire indication that La Niña is on the way, and with it the textbook more-amplified jet stream that accompanies it. A more amplified jet stream during the summer tends to mean that high pressure ridges will be particularly powerful - the jet stream will curve its way up to Canada, allowing the full power of the southern heat dome to rise northward into our neck of the woods.

So my opinion? Same as it was when Spring was beginning: expect a very hot, humid summer.

How about severe weather and precipitation?

Well, severe weather looks like it's going to have a couple things going for it, and a couple things going against it. During La Niña years, severe weather tends to ramp up all over the country. This is due to a more amplified jet stream whipping up and creating powerful upper level disturbances which then encounter equally powerful high pressure ridges. If something like this were to occur when the hot humid air that the Bermuda High brings to our neighborhood is in place, watch out. An example of such an event was the May 1998 Great Lakes Derecho. You may have heard me mention this one before. This system produced an outbreak of supercells (one of which spawned an F4 tornado in South Dakota) which consolidated into a line, and began to propagate new storms off of the previous' storms outflow boundaries like a nuclear chain reaction. It went on to plow across six states, doing its heaviest damage in Michigan, where it produced category 4 hurricane-force winds of 130+mph. This thing quite literally generated a storm surge on Lake Michigan and sank several boats, on top of knocking down five 345 kilovolt transmission towers. It killed 6 people and injured hundreds.

Now, I'm not saying that something like this is likely to occur again this year, but I do think we'll see one or two major severe weather events. Originally, I was of the opinion that we were only as likely to see as many, if not fewer than, the number of severe events we saw last year, but after some research I'm thinking we actually may see more severe days. The main thing going against severe weather is that during summers like these, the jet stream tends to stay to the north, and we don't get as much cold air interaction as we typically do. Last year, the jet stream was "zonal" - that is, more east to west in flow - and pretty nearly parked over Michigan for most of the summer. This lead to a lot of thunderstorms, if you recall, and the June 22nd/August 2nd events, but not too many severe days in between. If the jet stream stays north, you can kiss thunderstorms - and really, precipitation of any kind - goodbye. Years in which we transition from El Niño to La Niña definitely tend to be drier. Less precipitation usually means less thunderstorms. However, with the type of air we're going to have in place, when storms do manage to form, they will probably be very strong. I've been going over analog years to get more indication on this. So far, I've noticed an average to slightly above average number of tornadoes in most of the years mentioned as analogous to this one by the weather community. I'm looking at 1998 in particular, as it was coming off the heels of the strongest El Niño on record, and we're coming off the heels of a similarly strong one. Michigan had 21 tornadoes touch down that year, most of which were weak (F0 or F1). One F2 touched down in Berrien County (crossing into Cass County before crossing the state line). By contrast, we had 14 tornadoes last year. Our average is 16. Combined with the May derecho, 1998 was a much more potent year for severe weather than was last year. So despite my earlier Facebook post, I'm reversing my position - I now think that we'll be looking at a fair amount of severe weather, possibly even significant severe weather this year. I'm hoping some experts other than me will talk about this and perhaps go over the full list of analog years detailing significant severe weather that occurred. Aside from the May 98 storm, nothing really stands out in my memory.

My final talking point is going to be rain. As stated above, summers like this tend to be on the dry side. It's going to be tough to say how dry, but if spring is any indication, we're probably not going to see much more stratiform precipitation this year. This type of rain is what we'll be getting this weekend. The storms that have come have not carried a whole lot of moisture and have moved off pretty quick. Despite thunderstorms likely being more intense than last year, I think we're going to see a lot fewer general thunderstorm days than last year.

A few more images to chew on as I wrap up this post. This is what the Climate Prediction Center is offering up in terms of what to look forward to over the next ten days, month, and three months in terms of temperature and precipitation. The three month outlook is especially promising of a very warm summer. The U.P. is also forecast to be particularly dry, and northern lower Michigan to be drier than normal. Southern lower Michigan, however, is forecast to be around normal, which makes me especially curious as to what kind of storms we'll have to look forward to over the next three months.

To summarize:

• The state of Michigan is looking at a hot, humid, drier than normal summer thanks to a La Niña transition and a strongly positive NAO/strong Bermuda High

• Severe weather events are likely to be a bit stronger and more numerous than last year, though I'm still waiting to hear more from the experts

• The first half of May is likely to be colder than normal

Mostly dry, cool week on the way

So much for an early summer =( at least one that comes in April!

Brrrrr....

The good news is that high pressure is again taking a dominant stance in our weather. The bad news is that this particular high pressure is rooted over the Hudson Bay and is going to make things a bit chilly for the coming week, possibly even two weeks. Temperatures will likely remain in the 40s and 50s, cooler near the lake shore, and very chilly at night - potentially below freezing in some areas.

Thunderstorms are highly unlikely during any point in this period. Our next chance of rain appears to be Thursday, when a weak low will likely pay us a visit. The latest GFS run is making much more out of this low than the ECMWF. One way or another, the rain it brings will either be light or moderate and nothing to write home about.

A better chance for rain appears to arrive on or around May 1st. Again, no thunderstorms look likely for the period, and there's little indication of anything on the horizon for the time being.

VERY BAD DAY ahead for the Plains states tomorrow 04/26/16

I cannot stress this enough. If you know anybody in these regions, tell them that they need to have an emergency plan in place by tomorrow evening.

These images come from the 18z run of the NAM4KM. I'm not using the 00z run because it wasn't ready when I started assembling these images, and it's pretty much a duplicate of these anyway. The NAM4KM is usually very good at depicting where thunderstorms form, and I've learned to trust it implicitly. It is dead-accurate, in my experience, 75-80% of the time.

Truthfully, this setup is hauntingly similar to the June 22nd scenario we saw in Michigan last year, right down to the time of day. The main difference is that there will be no early day thunderstorms to cool down the environment and thus temper the tornado potential. The first loop represents significant tornado potential throughout the evening. It's going to be off the charts - over 10 in some areas. STP doesn't have to be anywhere near that high to get strong tornadoes - a 4 or 5 would be cause for concern. When you start seeing 10s, you typically start seeing numerous violent tornadoes - EF4s and EF5s.

The second loop is obvious - simulated radar. Nothing short of a nightmare scenario there, especially considering these are forecast to develop after dark.

The third is probably the scariest image. Each one of those swaths represents updraft helicity - that's rotation. Those dark greens are potential tornadoes. Those yellows and reds are potentially violent tornadoes.

I fully expect the SPC to push a high risk with tomorrow's outlook, either first thing in the morning or soon after. The only thing I could see preventing it is if the low level winds are mild. As of the SPC's last outlook, they were forecast to be 15-20kts. However, there's now hints in the latest model run that they'll be on the order of 20-30kts. Surface winds that strong could easily drive a big tornado outbreak.

As with all severe weather scenarios, this one is still a wait-and-see situation right up to the end. I hate the idea of people getting killed tomorrow by these storms. I'm hoping that if an outbreak occurs, it will be one with zero fatalities.

Several severe warned storms crossing SW lower MI, reports of large hail

Hail seems to be the hazard of the day this time around.

Despite numerous warnings and an earlier short-lived mesoscale discussion being issued, the SPC has not issued a severe thunderstorm watch. This is probably due to the time of day and the fact that cooling should rob these storms of their fuel rather quickly. Some strong storms with non-severe hail remain possible throughout the evening.

Many supercells popping up over Lake Michigan, heading east

Numerous supercell thunderstorms are beginning to pop up over Lake Michigan and are heading east at roughly 40mph:

The question remains whether or not they'll hold together as they make landfall on the western edge of the state, or whether they'll merge into a line as is currently being predicted. Such a bowing line could produce a fairly decent damaging wind event. I'm noticing modest rotation in some of these cells, however I still believe the tornado threat will remain low, especially as the discrete nature of the storms changes to become more linear.

I do expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued for the western portion of the state within the next couple hours.

Severe weather possible this afternoon

There's some indication that storms with damaging wind and large hail are likely in the southwest portion of the state this afternoon and evening. According to the HRRR, which is the "best" model for predicting the arrival/mode of storms, this bowing structure should be arriving around 8-9PM and cut an east-southeast path. These storms should lose strength quickly as instability is forecast to be rather low, but I'm slightly concerned for the westernmost counties.

I'm going a step beyond the SPC's official "marginal" forecast and outlining a yellow risk area for this region. I believe that the chances for severe weather elsewhere in the state remains marginal, as there just doesn't look like there'll be enough unstable air in place to keep this thing going for long, especially as the sun sets and night time cooling occurs. Nonetheless, pockets of unstable air will allow for thunderstorms elsewhere across the state this evening, one or two of which may cross severe thresholds. The hazards of large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat with these storms; chances of tornadoes are very very slim.

Rain/thunderstorms likely over the weekend, marginal chance of severe weather Monday across southern counties

Cold air from the north will be squaring off with warm air from the south over Michigan this weekend. A very strong high pressure ridge is in place over the Hudson Bay, which is pushing this colder air from the north and east down over Michigan. This ridge is currently stronger than the Bermuda High, which is why warmer temperatures are having such a tough time staying in place over the state, especially the further north you go. This ridge is also doing us some good, though, as it will likely be preventing the powerful low that will affect the Great Plains this week from surging far to the north and potentially causing similar problems for us (the scenario for the Plains on Tuesday does not look good right now).

Today should be sunny, mild and rain-free. Some thunderstorm potential definitely exists for us, beginning tomorrow. That's when the first in a series of troughs will be making its way into Michigan. A quasi-stationary front will develop as this area of low pressure moves into the area. The latest NAM model runs suggest that convection will develop over the U.P. tomorrow and move southward across the state. Northern areas of the state will likely see more rain tomorrow than the southern areas, but there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could develop to the south, mainly due to the warm temperatures in those areas in combination with potential lake breezes/outflow boundaries from northern storms. 

Monday definitely has more potential in the convective department. The front won't be moving much from its position on Sunday, but it will be creeping slowly southward, and should pick up some steam throughout the day. As it does, storms should form along it. More instability will be in place in the warmer southern counties, which, of course, means greater potential for thunderstorms and potentially some stronger ones. Based on what I'm seeing in the models, I'm thinking areas along and south of the I-69 corridor have at least a marginal chance of seeing storms with damaging wind gusts out of this setup. Sanilac County also may see a stronger storm if any winds off Lake Huron can influence the system. Farther north, instability won't be quite as high and thus the severe threat should be tempered. 

Next week should be cooler and drier, with some rain potential late in the week. More on that in a later post.

First high risk day of the year likely coming next week in the Great Plains

Unrelated to Michigan weather, at least for now. Also, the legendary musician Prince died at 57 today - may his soul rest in peace. 

A classic Great Plains spring tornado outbreak scenario looks to be shaping up for next Tuesday. Model consistency has been very strong across consecutive GFS and ECMWF runs on this one. Central Oklahoma and south central Kansas in particular look to be under the gun for this one. Most distressing is that the conditions for severe weather are appearing to improve as hours go on in the afternoon, meaning that very severe weather is likely regardless of the timing of the arrival of this system. EHI values of 10 or higher are possible in some areas. This means there is likely to be a horrendous amount of instability in combination with very strong shear values (GFS is currently predicting cape values in excess of 3000j/kg with 40kt+ 0-1km wind shear - fixed significant tornado potential is predicted to be 8+).

Those who live in these areas usually go through this at least once a year, so they're well rehearsed in tornado safety. Nevertheless, if you or someone you know is going to be in the areas next Tuesday, take adequate precautions and/or make others aware of the situation. It is very rare for the SPC to delineate a 30% risk area 7 days in advance, and these are usually reserved for when confidence is high for a major event.

Thunderstorms now looking likely on Thursday

12-24 hours can change a forecast pretty significantly, and with the latest NAM runs I'm now fairly confident we're going to see our first round of widespread thunderstorms this Thursday afternoon.

I'm not anticipating any severe weather at this point; the upper level jet doesn't look strong enough to drive them. Instability, however, will be on the rise, as will the temperatures and dewpoints. The latest NAM suggests widespread dewpoints in the 60s, which always causes me to open my eyes a bit. There are rumblings from NWS Detroit that suggest the model may be off a bit in the timing of the upper level cold pool, though, which would mean that it could be overinflating the level of instability. One way or another, I'm not thinking we're going to see much in the way of noteworthy wind, hail, or truly any hazards other than heavy rain and lightning. At the time, I'm outlining a general thunder risk for all of the areas marked by the NAM at 500j/kg of SBCAPE or higher, which will be much of the lower peninsula. Look for a warm, wet afternoon this Thursday.

85 degrees in the sun in Huron County - Some showers/rumbles possible near the lake shore

Took a ride over to Bad Axe this evening, and I can confirm via my car's thermometer that it hit 84 in the sun. It's 81 right now in the sun in Pigeon. The official temperature remains 78, as the sunlight doesn't factor in.

Of note, some lake enhanced convection is appearing over the Saginaw Bay. This doesn't surprise me as temperatures are getting up there, and there's a bit more moisture to work with over the water. Some rain or even a rumble of thunder could occur near the northern shorelines.

Rain to return Thursday - Should give entire state a good soaking

Temperatures should cool down a bit over the coming days, but only by a bit. We're still going to be riding high in the 50s and 60s with comfortable weather and high pressure until early Thursday morning. That's when a low pressure system will arrive and bring a fair amount of rain to the state, with the looking to occur in the western portion of the U.P.

This rain is actually going to be much needed after a week and a half of dry weather. There has already been some grass fire incidents in Huron County and we certainly don't want any more.

I don't really expect any significant thunderstorm development, even of a general nature, and certainly not strong. Most of this precipitation will be stratiform and won't be accompanied by much of a temperature deviation from what we experience the rest of the week. The weekend will be quite a bit cooler than last, though, with highs likely only reaching 60° and some light rain possible. Temperatures should pick back up by next week. As of right now I'm eyeballing next Wednesday for potential thunderstorms.

Loving this outlook - Moving into summer-like weather

We may be skipping spring altogether and moving straight into summer-like temperatures here very shortly.

I'm officially tossing the "no snow forecast" outlook in favor of "no thunderstorms forecast" for now because I think we're officially done with snow for the season. It was nice to keep it there for awhile to remind us of this fact, but I have a feeling we're going to be moving into severe weather season rather rapidly in a few weeks. More on that in a minute; for now, let's talk about how awesome the next week is going to be weather-wise.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are predicting temperatures between 65-70° throughout Michigan by Sunday. These temperatures will likely be a bit lower near the lakeshore areas, but with a very strong high pressure ridge being anchored over our area, we can expect lots of sunshine and light, variable winds. It will be picnic perfect for the entire weekend, with temps only getting warmer as time goes on. At this point, it's certainly safe to put the snowblower away and get the grill ready.

The downside will be nighttime. The ground is still a bit cold, and skies will be clear. We're also not quite in the midst of the warmest air yet, so temperatures will still likely drop to the 30s at night time. So while it's definitely grill weather, it isn't quite garden weather yet.

The summer-like temps I'm referring to look to be showing up toward the end of the forecast period. This would be as that Bermuda High makes its return and simultaneously a strong storm system develops to our west, picking up Gulf moisture. Currently the GFS is forecasting temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to develop in association with this scenario. Now, as I usually state, this forecast is very preliminary, and could change by up to 10 degrees in either direction (10 degrees less being much more likely). We need both more model runs and different models looking at it to have a better grasp on what's going on. As of now, the GFS is basically the only model that runs this far out, but I usually like the GFS for temperatures. Temps/dewpoints being this high will be greatly dependent on the strength/position of the jet stream and high/low pressure systems, though, so I'd say it's about a 50/50 shot at this point. If temperatures/dewpoints DO get that high, I expect very strong to severe thunderstorms to follow them, as the jet stream is still quite active and will likely be for some time. My gut feeling is that the severe weather season this year will be a bit more active, if not necessarily more intense, than it was last year. We may yet see one or two events on par or exceeding June 22nd or August 2nd of last year. My feeling is that there'll be more overall severe days, though, which means more chances for events like that to occur.

Regardless, I'm looking forward to going out and taking pictures of thunderstorms again, rather than struggling to dig out my car while my hands freeze. I have a feeling most others are feeling the same.

Remember high pressure? Warm air?

It's been a long March/April. We've had some teasers, but with all the wintry precipitation it's been tough to call it Spring.

From all accounts, that will change by this weekend:

Yes, those are widespread 70s being predicted throughout Michigan by Sunday. I said April 17th, and I meant April 17th. I'm sticking to that day, and remaining positive. That 1024mb high pressure ridge is keeping me very, very hopeful.

Little to no precipitation of any kind is expected this week. We finally have some drier, warmer air on the way.

Winter Weather Advisory issued for most of lower Michigan

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the coming clipper system tomorrow. Throughout the day, some areas may see as much as five inches of snow, though this will eventually change over to sleet and rain for all but the northernmost areas.

Weekend clippers may bring 1-3 inches of snow to northern, 4-5 inches to southern lower MI

Little has changed in the forecast regarding the two Alberta Clippers on track to dust Michigan with the other four-letter-s-word this weekend.

All models are relatively in agreement on timing and duration. Round one should start tonight and mainly affect the southern area. It's this that will cause the southern portions of the state to see more snow than the rest, as round two will begin Sunday afternoon and last into Monday morning. The good news is that this snow should melt off quickly starting Monday afternoon, as warmer temps will build into the area, at least temporarily. A few more days of cold are on scheduled in the wake of the storm (especially Tuesday), but by Tax Day we should start to see a big improvement. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs are even suggesting temps will make a run at 60° by next Friday.  

A couple more storm systems, another week of cold, but then something potentially profound

Mine eyes have seen the glory. But first we have to get through the next ten days.

It starts with some snow potential Friday afternoon into Saturday. The track of this one isn't being particularly nice with predictability either, and it's beginning to look as though it may stay well to the south of most of lower Michigan. There's also some hints of warm air influencing the system and heating up the surface into the 40s in those areas, which would neutralize snow possibilities. We could still see up to 3 inches from this one though, and the variance isn't enough for me to adjust my outlook just yet. 

Another system is targeting the state starting Sunday morning. This one looks far more likely to bring all snow, at least at first. As time progresses, it should transition over to rain, as a storm from the south is forecast to merge with it. This one definitely has the potential to be a bit more messy, though, so I plan to keep an eye on it. Some models are suggesting temperatures in Mid Michigan could go as high as 50° by Tuesday, which, despite the rain, will be most welcome.

Another chilly few days would then settle in as the cold front moves through. This wouldn't necessarily be a bone chilling cold - temperatures in the day could even make a run at 40° in the southern half of the state - but expect lows in the 20s and potentially the teens the further north you go. The best news is that this period should be fairly dry with lots of high pressure and sunshine, giving the ground a chance to absorb the ridiculous amount of precipitation that has fallen and continues to fall.

Then comes the 17th. The glorious, glorious 17th.

Over the course of several model runs, I've seen more and more evidence that the Polar Vortex is going to be waving bye-bye to the Hudson Bay and, thus, the United States, for the rest of the year right around this date. As it stands, the system tends to split during the winter months, and dive southward over both Canada and Europe/Asia. These dives are what give us these cold snaps. The strength of the system tends to be at its zenith when it splits and dives. Right now, height falls are around 954-966 over these locations at 250mb. By the time it reforms and retreats back to the North Pole (and aligns more with the Atlantic/Pacific oceans than with either continent), said falls should be around 984. That's a 30hPa pressure increase, and a major sign of weakening. The alignment will also be opposite our continent, meaning it should have little to no influence over our weather.

Yes, you're seeing that right - by the 19th temps in lower Michigan could be making a run at 75°.

One more thing of note is that the polar jet stream will still be hanging out in our neck of the woods at these times, and it does look as though it'll be quite strong and erratic, with several upper level troughs on the way. This could be an omen of severe weather to come, especially should the Bermuda High build back in and begin funneling Gulf moisture into the region. I'm of the opinion that it's going to be a stormy spring, as our analog year is 1998, which definitely set some records in that department.  

Winter Weather Advisory issued for northern ¾ of Michigan

No watch this time around, but I still think the image is appropriate.

From NWS Detroit:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

 * THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES
   FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
   TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHEST
   AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

Totals should be higher the further north you go. I'm actually of the opinion that the only reason we're not seeing a Winter Storm Watch is because the snow is expected to melt off quickly once it transitions over to rain. I still think some areas may still wind up seeing upgrades to warnings depending on how this plays out.

Winter won't quit - Increasing confidence for storm Wednesday

The 6"+ that fell in Huron County melted off for the most part today, leaving more water on still saturated ground. Temperatures continue to hover around freezing, so that waterlogged ground may transition back and forth between ice and mud for some time, especially that which lies in the sunlight.

There remains no letup in sight for our state. A moisture-laden storm from the south will pay us a visit Wednesday, and it's looking like another one that could drop a lot of snow, at least initially. There is a small silver lining in that the snow should transition to rain as temperatures should approach 35-40 by Wednesday evening over the southern two thirds of the area, and the great news is that little to no freezing rain is expected.

Up north, you're almost certain to see all snow, and possibly a great deal of it - 6 to 9 inches is what I'd expect a this point if you live north of Bay County. 6 inches will also be very possible in areas along the US 10 corridor into Huron County. South of that, however, you're going to have a very tight cut-off point where the snow will be much, much less - possibly 20 miles or less. I'd expect 1-3 inches of total snow mixed with potential sleet in these areas, but the transition to rain should be much more rapid here and any snow that does fall should liquefy quickly.

I expect a Winter Storm Watch to be issued within the next day for the counties shaded in dark gray in the outlook, with warnings and advisories to follow thereafter. It may be another very messy travel day Wednesday, so be prepared.

Ready for some more bad news? That second half of April warm-up? Yeah, that's not such a sure thing anymore. I'm beginning to wonder if temperatures won't rebound until the last week of April into May. The polar air mass up north just seems to be too strong for any countermeasures right now. More on that tomorrow.

WINTER STORM WARNING issued for Thumb Area

The Old Man seems to have a bone to pick with me this year. NWS Detroit has just pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Warning for Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties. Everyone else has either been downgraded to an advisory or had all headlines cancelled outright. 

Text:

MIZ049-054-055-031645-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0004.160403T1800Z-160404T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0006.160403T1800Z-160404T0900Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY
440 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
   FORECASTED AFTER 1 PM EDT WITH THE PEAK OF THE SNOWFALL
   OCCURRING IN THE 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT TIMEFRAME.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

 * THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WITHIN A
   NARROW BAND OVER THE REGION.

IMPACTS...

* UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

* TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED DUE TO POOR VISIBILITIES IN
  HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

This is the fifth Winter Storm Warning issued for the Thumb Area this year. By contrast, Huron County had no warnings affect it at all last year. I wish I could say for sure that this was likely to be the last one issued, but with Wednesday looming and the way this year has gone, I can't be certain of anything.

Growing concern - Wednesday April 6th Potential Winter Storm

I know I'm getting ahead of myself considering that Winter Storm Warnings could be coming within the next 6 hours for an additional 8 inches of snow in some areas, but I don't want this one to slip off the radar because it could bring even more hazardous weather to the area.

Yesterday I made mention of potentially heavy rains this coming Wednesday which in addition to a warm up would cause snow melt and potential flooding issues. The good news is that this is looking less and less likely from the latest model forecasts. The bad news is that the system is still coming, and it's looking like it's going to be cold enough for snow instead.

All I can see in this image is the bottom of a woman's stiletto shoe. That shoe belongs to Mother Nature as she curb-stomps the state of Michigan. 12z ECMWF projected snowfall rates for Wednesday morning.

Haven't had enough depressing graphics yet? Take a look at the projected snowfall totals below:

Both the GFS and ECMWF models are in close agreement in both timing and track of this storm thus far, though the GFS is taking the misery one step further and predicting freezing rain.  

I vote that we all just stay in bed for the next two weeks.

Winter Storm Watch issued for Mid Michigan and the Thumb for potential snowfall in excess of 6 inches tomorrow

Once again the Old Man is specifically targeting Mid Michigan and the Thumb area for large amounts of snow accumulation. A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued in addition to the Winter Weather Advisory for the areas shaded in navy blue on the map below.

This means that the National Weather Service is eyeing these counties in particular for a possible Winter Storm Warning within the next 24 hours. This comes as the next clipper system trains in on today's, and looks to pack much more of a punch. This could also be one of those storms that picks up some enhancement from Lake Huron, as the winds will be blowing in an ideal direction for such a scenario. Truth be told, we could wind up with an over-productive system which drops even more snow than what's currently being forecast. It's too early to tell, as when lake enhancement is involved it's very difficult to predict just how much will wind up falling until atmospheric observations come into play. When combined with what's on the way for tonight, we could be looking at 8 inches of total accumulation by Monday in the counties currently under a watch.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect along with the watch until 11PM tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory in Mid Michigan, Wind Advisory to the south

The first of two powerful clipper systems is going to affect the state beginning this afternoon. The first hazard is going to be accumulating snow. To that end, a winter weather advisory has been issued for a swath of counties along and between the US 10 and I-69 corridors. This advisory goes into affect at 2PM and lasts until 11PM. The bulk of the snow won't kick in until the afternoon, so if you have stuff to do that involves travelling in these areas, get it done this morning if possible. I don't expect the accumulation to be the biggest issue, but rather blowing snow and lack of visibility.

To the south, a wind advisory goes into affect around the same time. While those to the south of the advisory area should primarily see rain, sustained 30mph winds with gusts to 50mph are what's being called for, and the SPC has also put out a general thunder risk, which means that any showers/thunderstorms that do manage to form would pack more of a damaging wind risk than what they usually would.

If you're in an area under the wind advisory, you should probably prepare for power outages. Further north, the winds shouldn't be as much of an issue, but when combined with the snow they may make for a slow travel situation.

Here comes the COLD, here comes the SNOW again!

Michigan, ever the battleground... and the Old Man is coming back to wage war. We've wrapped up on the crazy rain as of this morning, and by the weekend we're going to be looking at another deep - if not too deep - freeze.

Depending on which model you go by, we could be looking at 20s or teens by 2am Sunday morning. The NAM is trending a bit warmer, while the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting temperatures will sink below 20, at least for some of the northern territories. Both of these models tend to trend a bit on the cold side, so my thinking is that Mid Michigan will sink to right around 22-24° and the northern areas would hit right around 20°. Teens could definitely be possible in a couple of pockets though. 

The GFS and ECMWF really turn on the freezer for Tuesday, though, and it's going to feel more like early January than early April. Both models are predicting temperatures in the single digits throughout most of Mid Michigan. Areas around the lakeshore should actually get a bit of a boost from the warm temperatures, so they would be closer to the teens. The good news is that it looks as though this would be accompanied by relatively clear skies (which makes sense considering temperatures usually drop at night when it's clear) and little wind, meaning wind chills may not be as much of a factor as they'd otherwise be. Both of these models could also be trending a bit cold, too, so we could wind up seeing temperatures closer to ten degrees in Mid Michigan and 20° near the lakeshore, if we're lucky. A brief warmup will be likely on Wednesday as a powerful warm-sector storm will likely pay us a visit, followed by another few chilly days. Things don't look like they're really going to bounce back temperature-wise until the week of April 10th. 

Now onto the part I'm sure nobody wants to hear about - snow.

We're going to have three potential rounds of it. Tonight's round should be light and not produce much accumulation. There is an indication that some areas may even see rain. Round two, however, should be all snow, and we could see as much as 2-4 inches from it depending on location. Round 3 should also be all snow, and another 2-4 inches could fall for a total of 4-8 inches in some areas by Monday morning.

This snow will likely melt off considerably on Wednesday should temperatures warm as much as what's being forecast. That's when another major storm system will likely pay us a visit and dump widespread heavy rain to add to our already oversaturated ground. Combined with the snowmelt and general wetness already present, I think we're going to be dealing with more flooding for at least the first half of April.

The good news is that there are some indications that the second half of April will be a bit warmer and a bit less wet for the second half of April. This will be very important for the agricultural industry, as of right now the fields are pretty much swamps.

To summarize:

• A cold, blustery weekend is ahead with some decent snowfall potential.

• There should be a warm-sector storm during the middle of next week, which should cause the snow to melt and add heavy rain. This will likely cause more flooding problems.

• The jury is out on the second half of April, but it definitely looks better than the first.