First high risk day of the year likely coming next week in the Great Plains

Unrelated to Michigan weather, at least for now. Also, the legendary musician Prince died at 57 today - may his soul rest in peace. 

A classic Great Plains spring tornado outbreak scenario looks to be shaping up for next Tuesday. Model consistency has been very strong across consecutive GFS and ECMWF runs on this one. Central Oklahoma and south central Kansas in particular look to be under the gun for this one. Most distressing is that the conditions for severe weather are appearing to improve as hours go on in the afternoon, meaning that very severe weather is likely regardless of the timing of the arrival of this system. EHI values of 10 or higher are possible in some areas. This means there is likely to be a horrendous amount of instability in combination with very strong shear values (GFS is currently predicting cape values in excess of 3000j/kg with 40kt+ 0-1km wind shear - fixed significant tornado potential is predicted to be 8+).

Those who live in these areas usually go through this at least once a year, so they're well rehearsed in tornado safety. Nevertheless, if you or someone you know is going to be in the areas next Tuesday, take adequate precautions and/or make others aware of the situation. It is very rare for the SPC to delineate a 30% risk area 7 days in advance, and these are usually reserved for when confidence is high for a major event.