A couple more storm systems, another week of cold, but then something potentially profound

Mine eyes have seen the glory. But first we have to get through the next ten days.

It starts with some snow potential Friday afternoon into Saturday. The track of this one isn't being particularly nice with predictability either, and it's beginning to look as though it may stay well to the south of most of lower Michigan. There's also some hints of warm air influencing the system and heating up the surface into the 40s in those areas, which would neutralize snow possibilities. We could still see up to 3 inches from this one though, and the variance isn't enough for me to adjust my outlook just yet. 

Another system is targeting the state starting Sunday morning. This one looks far more likely to bring all snow, at least at first. As time progresses, it should transition over to rain, as a storm from the south is forecast to merge with it. This one definitely has the potential to be a bit more messy, though, so I plan to keep an eye on it. Some models are suggesting temperatures in Mid Michigan could go as high as 50° by Tuesday, which, despite the rain, will be most welcome.

Another chilly few days would then settle in as the cold front moves through. This wouldn't necessarily be a bone chilling cold - temperatures in the day could even make a run at 40° in the southern half of the state - but expect lows in the 20s and potentially the teens the further north you go. The best news is that this period should be fairly dry with lots of high pressure and sunshine, giving the ground a chance to absorb the ridiculous amount of precipitation that has fallen and continues to fall.

Then comes the 17th. The glorious, glorious 17th.

Over the course of several model runs, I've seen more and more evidence that the Polar Vortex is going to be waving bye-bye to the Hudson Bay and, thus, the United States, for the rest of the year right around this date. As it stands, the system tends to split during the winter months, and dive southward over both Canada and Europe/Asia. These dives are what give us these cold snaps. The strength of the system tends to be at its zenith when it splits and dives. Right now, height falls are around 954-966 over these locations at 250mb. By the time it reforms and retreats back to the North Pole (and aligns more with the Atlantic/Pacific oceans than with either continent), said falls should be around 984. That's a 30hPa pressure increase, and a major sign of weakening. The alignment will also be opposite our continent, meaning it should have little to no influence over our weather.

Yes, you're seeing that right - by the 19th temps in lower Michigan could be making a run at 75°.

One more thing of note is that the polar jet stream will still be hanging out in our neck of the woods at these times, and it does look as though it'll be quite strong and erratic, with several upper level troughs on the way. This could be an omen of severe weather to come, especially should the Bermuda High build back in and begin funneling Gulf moisture into the region. I'm of the opinion that it's going to be a stormy spring, as our analog year is 1998, which definitely set some records in that department.