I'm officially tossing the "no snow forecast" outlook in favor of "no thunderstorms forecast" for now because I think we're officially done with snow for the season. It was nice to keep it there for awhile to remind us of this fact, but I have a feeling we're going to be moving into severe weather season rather rapidly in a few weeks. More on that in a minute; for now, let's talk about how awesome the next week is going to be weather-wise.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are predicting temperatures between 65-70° throughout Michigan by Sunday. These temperatures will likely be a bit lower near the lakeshore areas, but with a very strong high pressure ridge being anchored over our area, we can expect lots of sunshine and light, variable winds. It will be picnic perfect for the entire weekend, with temps only getting warmer as time goes on. At this point, it's certainly safe to put the snowblower away and get the grill ready.
The downside will be nighttime. The ground is still a bit cold, and skies will be clear. We're also not quite in the midst of the warmest air yet, so temperatures will still likely drop to the 30s at night time. So while it's definitely grill weather, it isn't quite garden weather yet.
The summer-like temps I'm referring to look to be showing up toward the end of the forecast period. This would be as that Bermuda High makes its return and simultaneously a strong storm system develops to our west, picking up Gulf moisture. Currently the GFS is forecasting temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to develop in association with this scenario. Now, as I usually state, this forecast is very preliminary, and could change by up to 10 degrees in either direction (10 degrees less being much more likely). We need both more model runs and different models looking at it to have a better grasp on what's going on. As of now, the GFS is basically the only model that runs this far out, but I usually like the GFS for temperatures. Temps/dewpoints being this high will be greatly dependent on the strength/position of the jet stream and high/low pressure systems, though, so I'd say it's about a 50/50 shot at this point. If temperatures/dewpoints DO get that high, I expect very strong to severe thunderstorms to follow them, as the jet stream is still quite active and will likely be for some time. My gut feeling is that the severe weather season this year will be a bit more active, if not necessarily more intense, than it was last year. We may yet see one or two events on par or exceeding June 22nd or August 2nd of last year. My feeling is that there'll be more overall severe days, though, which means more chances for events like that to occur.
Regardless, I'm looking forward to going out and taking pictures of thunderstorms again, rather than struggling to dig out my car while my hands freeze. I have a feeling most others are feeling the same.
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