There's some indication that storms with damaging wind and large hail are likely in the southwest portion of the state this afternoon and evening. According to the HRRR, which is the "best" model for predicting the arrival/mode of storms, this bowing structure should be arriving around 8-9PM and cut an east-southeast path. These storms should lose strength quickly as instability is forecast to be rather low, but I'm slightly concerned for the westernmost counties.
I'm going a step beyond the SPC's official "marginal" forecast and outlining a yellow risk area for this region. I believe that the chances for severe weather elsewhere in the state remains marginal, as there just doesn't look like there'll be enough unstable air in place to keep this thing going for long, especially as the sun sets and night time cooling occurs. Nonetheless, pockets of unstable air will allow for thunderstorms elsewhere across the state this evening, one or two of which may cross severe thresholds. The hazards of large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat with these storms; chances of tornadoes are very very slim.
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