Rain/thunderstorms likely over the weekend, marginal chance of severe weather Monday across southern counties

Cold air from the north will be squaring off with warm air from the south over Michigan this weekend. A very strong high pressure ridge is in place over the Hudson Bay, which is pushing this colder air from the north and east down over Michigan. This ridge is currently stronger than the Bermuda High, which is why warmer temperatures are having such a tough time staying in place over the state, especially the further north you go. This ridge is also doing us some good, though, as it will likely be preventing the powerful low that will affect the Great Plains this week from surging far to the north and potentially causing similar problems for us (the scenario for the Plains on Tuesday does not look good right now).

Today should be sunny, mild and rain-free. Some thunderstorm potential definitely exists for us, beginning tomorrow. That's when the first in a series of troughs will be making its way into Michigan. A quasi-stationary front will develop as this area of low pressure moves into the area. The latest NAM model runs suggest that convection will develop over the U.P. tomorrow and move southward across the state. Northern areas of the state will likely see more rain tomorrow than the southern areas, but there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could develop to the south, mainly due to the warm temperatures in those areas in combination with potential lake breezes/outflow boundaries from northern storms. 

Monday definitely has more potential in the convective department. The front won't be moving much from its position on Sunday, but it will be creeping slowly southward, and should pick up some steam throughout the day. As it does, storms should form along it. More instability will be in place in the warmer southern counties, which, of course, means greater potential for thunderstorms and potentially some stronger ones. Based on what I'm seeing in the models, I'm thinking areas along and south of the I-69 corridor have at least a marginal chance of seeing storms with damaging wind gusts out of this setup. Sanilac County also may see a stronger storm if any winds off Lake Huron can influence the system. Farther north, instability won't be quite as high and thus the severe threat should be tempered. 

Next week should be cooler and drier, with some rain potential late in the week. More on that in a later post.