Forecasting this weekend's storm is very difficult right now

It's still too early to tell on what kind of precipitation mode we're going to see this weekend. I myself am sitting on the fence between conventional wisdom, backed up by several area meteorologists, and what the models are telling me. Factors such as ground temperature, timing, lake breezes and very very small differences in surface air temperature could mean the difference between snow, sleet, or rain.

As of right now, I'm still leaning toward snow, but there simply isn't enough data to adjust the initial forecast. It doesn't help that the GFS is being rather inconsistent from run to run in terms of what it's predicting for snowfall, and that's given that the temperatures would favor snow vs. rain or sleet. As of yesterday evening's GFS run, the bulk of the snow was predicted to fall in an east-northeast swath across the state, with western counties seeing the most. Not as much was expected as in previous forecasts - 2 to 4 inches at most. By this morning, the forecast was revised back up to 3-5 inches in some areas, with the bulk going to the northern counties of lower Michigan. This matched well with my initial outlook. However, the latest run has shifted the location of the heaviest snow to the thumb area. See the picture below for all three forecasts.

Snow accumulation as predicted by the last three GFS runs. Wide variance makes these predictions less trustworthy.

The biggest factor that has me sitting on the fence rather than simply going with Mark's expertise is that the NAM is beginning to see the weekend, and what it sees is all snow. The NAM12KM (slightly higher resolution) hints at even deeper shades of blue, but there's also those shades of purple over the lake which could indicate rain/snow mix.

The NAM sees mostly snow, and the NAM is one of the best models for temperature prediction.

The jury remains out on what we're going to see. Again, I'm keeping my outlook the way it is, and will likely revise it tomorrow morning. By then, the weather service may also start to issue watches, which could further adjust my influence.