Winter Storm Watch issued for all of SW, SE, Central lower Michigan

As most are now well aware of, a powerful winter storm is on track to affect lower Michigan this Saturday. Timing, temperature, and track are all still questionable, but as of now due to increasing model guidance that snowfall totals will exceed 5" in a numerous counties, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of southeast, southwest, and central lower Michigan.

This watch is likely to be revised down to an advisory in some areas while upgraded to a warning in others, once the track of the storm becomes more clear. There are lot of forecast images coming out from many different TV stations and meteorologists, but the one I'm in most agreement with right now, considering the model data, comes from the NWS office in Grand Rapids:

This is the forecast that is most in line with the latest NAM4KM runs, which is a model that I've grown to trust implicitly regarding weather forecasts in Michigan. The snow predictor from the 1AM run of this model is shown below.

Again, this particular model guidance is based on a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, which is still in question. NWS is forecasting less snow in certain areas due to the opinion that this ratio may be a bit lower (i.e. 8:1, 7:1, 6:1 or even 5:1 in some areas) as temperatures will likely be warm in some places. I'm willing to bet at this point that the areas you see in the shades of purple and red will be the counties which will be upgraded to a warning over the next day. This includes the Thumb and most of southeast Michigan.

If you live in said areas, buy some microwave dinners and prepare to dig yourself out on Sunday. Travel will likely be a mess in those regions, so I wouldn't count on getting too far in the early morning hours. If you're part of a company that participates in snow removal, get ready for some work.