Saturday, November 7, 2015

Frighteningly powerful storm system heading for Great Lakes next week

I'm going to be completely honest - this fall has brought with it some of the deepest, most impressive closed lows I've ever seen cross the states since I began watching this stuff as a hobby. November gales are commonplace in Michigan, but rarely do I see storms like the one in the loop below predicted.


Keep in mind that this is a prediction and not a manifestation, but even if the storm doesn't quite reach the level depicted, it will still be a monster. Several GFS runs are predicting this dragon, with the latest one being the most extreme. If this beast does show up as it appears above, I'd expect it to potentially bring 50mph surface winds with it. If you hear about or see "Storm Warnings" posted on the lake, expect these types of winds; for marine warnings, the Beaufort Scale is still used.

As of right now, the track doesn't seem to indicate much of a severe weather threat, at least in terms of traditional thunderstorm hazards such as downbursts and tornadoes, though winds from the system itself may certainly meet or exceed severe criteria. This would change if the system were to wrap itself up quicker and head further north before crossing our territory, in which case we'd be put in the warm sector and all hell could break loose.

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