This matches up pretty well with my outlook:
I still think this could be adjusted higher or lower in either direction. Right now, a snowfall maxima appears to lie in a northeast diagonal from Livingston County to Sanilac county, where snowfall totals should meet or exceed 6". Much of the thumb may be covered with the white stuff by the time this snow is over.
The biggest factor at this point is temperature. If temperatures dip below 30° on Saturday, we can expect quite a bit more snow than what's being advertised here. This storm is going to bring the pain as far as moisture content is concerned and there is no question that it could produce. The fact is that when surface temperatures rise above 32°, falling snow starts to melt, which equates to fewer inches of snow on the ground, so the snow/water ratio becomes less than the typical 10:1 (more like 6:1 or 5:1). As temperatures decrease, you get the opposite effect.
No watches have been issued yet. I still expect some to come out shortly, though I'm not entirely sure for which counties they'll be issued. We may wind up with a simple solid advisory across the peninsula instead of any warnings issued, as current thinking has this pegged at just glancing warning criteria in those areas set to receive the most snow. Updates will be posted as they come.
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