Thursday, November 26, 2015

Ugly situation brewing for western Kansas, south-central Nebraska and western Iowa

The SPC has put out a mesoscale discussion for an ice storm.

This is a particularly nasty situation. 0.1 inch-per-hour of ice is going to lead to widespread power outages and structural damage in this region. Expect numerous travel delays/cancellations if you're flying in/out of the plains this weekend.

Text of the discussion:

SUMMARY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING.  THE WESTERN KS
   PORTION OF THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND
   SLEET...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST
   15-16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN.  

   THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO
   EAST-CENTRAL NEB WILL HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
   FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...OR JUST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. 
   PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS
   FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES...WITH
   FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.05-0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY
   00Z SSEO GUIDANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS
   MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR /65-75 MILES WIDE/...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
   /WICHITA TO FORD COUNTIES/ TO EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A PORTION OF
   WESTERN IA.  AT 12Z...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CORRIDOR WAS
   LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75-100 MILES N/NW OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS
   ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST IA THROUGH
   EXTREME NORTHWEST MO TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK AND THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR
   BELOW 32 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A SIMILAR TREND
   EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA THIS MORNING.

   STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX/OK TO
   EASTERN KS AND SOUTHERN IA WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD FLUX OF MOISTURE
   INTO AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY.  A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND
   IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
   AND LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER OVER NORTHEAST NM TO THE CO BORDER...
   WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH KS AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB
   THIS MORNING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS NORTHEASTWARD-
   MOVING MIDLEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH 1/ MOISTURE RETURN AND 2/
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
   IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND PERIODIC HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. 
   LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO
   EASTERN NEB RESULTING IN A STRONGER WARM NOSE ATOP SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 32 F...SUCH THAT THE VERTICAL THERMAL
   STRUCTURE COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING
   RAIN.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER IN
   WESTERN KS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHWEST KS IMPULSE SUPPORTING A
   TRANSITION TO SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE LATER THIS
   MORNING.


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