Most of lower Michigan once again under the gun for severe weather, damaging winds

The next 24-36 hours are going to be interesting. The massive dragon of a storm system which I mentioned in my previous post is on track to head into our region by late tomorrow night. This storm is frighteningly powerful in and of itself; we may be looking at gale/storm warnings on the lake for 45-55mph winds. However, the other factor is that we're once again going to be on the warmer side of this storm, and severe thunderstorms may again target the area.

The SPC day one outlook has again highlighted most of southern lower Michigan in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. Keep in mind, we were also under a marginal risk when three tornadoes touched down in the thumb last week. The timing will even be almost the same in terms of when the storms come through the state.

Now, while this storm system is even more potent than the one that generated those tornadoes, dynamically its a bit different, and we may have some factors on our side which prevent that from happening again. The direction of the surface wind last week was out of the south west, while the air at around 18,000 feet up was coming out of the north west. This was also the way the winds were blowing on August 2nd, and the storms which formed in the thumb were similar in many ways, both in terms of generating hurricane force winds and tornadoes. Surface winds this time around should be out of the south east, while at 18,000ft winds should be out of the west/southwest. This is also a good candidate for generating rotation, but when winds blow like this in Michigan, they tend to be a bit drier, which can inhibit severe hazards.

It's tough to call. The setup definitely looks strong, but it's also a bit clumsy looking. The system alone will generate very gusty conditions throughout the state, which could exceed the damaging wind threshold even without thunderstorms forming. Hopefully the lights will stay on this time and no buildings will be destroyed.