These images are from the latest high-res NAM4KM run, which is just now beginning to make predictions regarding Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few things of concern:
• The supercell composite index is coming in rather high even in our neck of the woods
• The forecast is calling for storms, and in our area, the storm mode (at least initially) appears to be discrete
• 1hr max updraft helicity appears to be quite strong in some areas of Illinois and Indiana, and is not to be ignored in areas of Michigan, either
To put it simply, when these factors combine, it tends to signify an increased tornado risk. What's really making the hair on the back of my neck stand up a bit is that this is beginning to feel a bit like the November 17th event. In the days prior to the outbreak, different areas were delineated for a severe risk. As the days moved on and model guidance became more focused, these areas began to creep further northward. Eventually, the result was the system which produced the Washington, Illinois tornado, among several others.
I wouldn't become super alarmed at this point. Everything would have to come together in horrid fashion for an event like that to repeat itself. For now, this setup is looking quite strong, but the models aren't predicting that we're going to bear the worst of it. I'm quite a bit more concerned for the Ohio Valley than I am for the Great Lakes at this point, especially at this time of year, when a) many are traveling, b) severe weather is not typically on anyone's mind. It needs to be, so if you're reading this, make sure to make your friends, neighbors and relatives aware of the situation, especially if they're traveling. Right now my thinking is that this is going to wind up being a moderate or high risk day for at least one region of the country, and that could cost lives.
I'll continue to avidly monitor the forecast and report updates as I get them.
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