MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI...CNTRL AND NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 290000Z - 290500Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI AND NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
SOME AREAS. IN CNTRL LOWER MI...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 03Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER CNTRL
IL. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE SFC TEMPS
FROM CNTRL WI EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S F.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN IL
WITH A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM MILWAUKEE WI NEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI DEVELOP AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR 850 MB TO 600 MB SUGGESTING THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL AGGREGATION WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. FOR THIS REASON...AREAS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL WI EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO NRN LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI...FREEZING RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
THE VICINITY OF DETROIT AND FLINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL LOWER
MI EARLY THIS EVENING RAPIDLY COOL THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AFTER 03Z FROM WEST
TO EAST. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW OCCURS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 12/29/2015
I'll let these pictures and video below speak for themselves. Video contains one curse word, but it's appropriate for this situation. The wind is gusting at least to 30 mph. The next 48 hours may raze my sanity.
The Old Man is back with a vengeance.
No comments:
Post a Comment