Monday, December 28, 2015

Weather in a word: Sh***y

Latest mesoscale discussion regarding the winter storm:


   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI...CNTRL AND NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 290000Z - 290500Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI AND NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
   HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   SOME AREAS. IN CNTRL LOWER MI...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 03Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO A
   TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER CNTRL
   IL. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST
   NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE SFC TEMPS
   FROM CNTRL WI EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S F.
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN IL
   WITH A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
   EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION THIS EVENING ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM MILWAUKEE WI NEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI DEVELOP AN
   ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR 850 MB TO 600 MB SUGGESTING THAT
   CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL AGGREGATION WHICH
   WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. FOR THIS REASON...AREAS OF HEAVY
   SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL WI EXTENDING
   NEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO NRN LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH
   PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI...FREEZING RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
   THE VICINITY OF DETROIT AND FLINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL LOWER
   MI EARLY THIS EVENING RAPIDLY COOL THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
   SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AFTER 03Z FROM WEST
   TO EAST. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
   SNOW OCCURS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/29/2015

I'll let these pictures and video below speak for themselves. Video contains one curse word, but it's appropriate for this situation. The wind is gusting at least to 30 mph. The next 48 hours may raze my sanity.





The Old Man is back with a vengeance.

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