I have some bad news for winter weather fans, but good news for those who dread shoveling, scraping, and skidding on the highway.
The mild winter promised by the historically strong El Niño in the Pacific is manifesting itself whole-heartedly, at least for the first portion of December. Below is what the GFS model is predicting for precipitation through December 11th. The latest model runs are essentially a mirror in terms of what Michigan is predicted to see...
...which is next to nothing. Of note: the ECMWF model pretty much predicts the same scenario of a high pressure ridge taking over the eastern U.S. After today's sporadic rain/snow flurries, it's very likely going to be dry as a bone in Michigan for at least ten days. As far as temperatures go, they will also be quite mild for a Michigan December - highs should be in the low to mid 40s and lows will dip to around 30° most nights.
With all of this in mind, the chances of accumulating snow or even flurries in Michigan for this time period are near zero. There are some hints of a possible storm system arriving on the week of the 13th, but it's still too early to tell just how it will affect us and what precipitation mode we'll see. If current trends hold true, we may wind up seeing nothing but rain out of it. I'll be keeping my eye on the latest model runs and post updates as needed.
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