This includes both a elevated damaging wind and isolated tornado threat for the counties under the slight risk. Everyone else in lower Michigan - and even in some areas of the U.P. - are under a marginal risk; isolated severe thunderstorm warnings will likely pop up later today within the green shaded areas.
That being said, my concern has actually been tempered a bit - the latest NAM4KM runs aren't depicting as much of a conditional threat for the state as they did yesterday. However, the wind fields will be quite strong, and literally -no- threat was depicted last month when three tornadoes touched down in the thumb area. With that in mind, the SPC has their reasoning for assigning the elevated risk. You never know how the lakes are going to factor in when it comes to a storm system like this one.
Regarding the southern Mississippi Valley, just by looking at this ominous tornado outlook, I'm almost 100% certain that some areas will be upgraded to a 15% tornado + 10% significant tornado threat in later outlooks, which equates to a moderate risk area. Depending on how events unfold, that could even go up for certain areas, which would mean a high risk day - something we've yet to have this year and something I was hoping we could avoid in 2015. I could be wrong about both. I'm hoping that I am. Nobody needs tornadoes on Christmas.
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