Tuesday December 29th Potentially Significant Winter Storm

Hopefully this post won't get buried in all the severe news and information, but I'll do my best to make sure that it doesn't.

With all the severe weather discussion, it's easy to forget that it's actually winter time, and after today we're going to be switching gears back to the seasonal hazards we should be having. That being said, winter weather fans who have been left out in the cold warm may begin to rejoice after they're done reading this post.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to indicate that a major winter storm may strike Michigan by next Tuesday. The pictures below are worth well over a thousand words:

ECMWF 00z1222 run temperature forecast for 1PM EST 12/29

ECMWF 00z1222 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 1PM EST 12/29

GFS 06z1223 run temperature forecast for 4AM EST 12/29

GFS 06z1223 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 4AM EST 12/29

GFS 00z1222 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 1AM EST 12/29

There are a couple of differences between the models, namely in timing and in temperature. The ECMWF predicts a slower storm system and warmer temperatures, which would probably mean less snow and a possible mix of rain/freezing rain. Consecutive GFS runs, however, predict a stronger storm system which would strike earlier in the day and even into the overnight Monday, with much colder temperatures forecast. If this forecast were to verify, parts of lower Michigan could easily see a foot of snow.

I'll be monitoring this closely over the coming days and report updates as they come.