Update on January 7-10th Potential Winter Storm

Latest GFS runs show the first disturbance in the chain (the one yesterday's was predicting on or around the 6th-7th) being much weaker than it did yesterday, leading me to believe that while we may receive some snow, it won't be of any real note. The more interesting, potentially much more significant January 9th-10th storm, however, is beginning to look as though it may be a classic Panhandle Hook.

The questions that remain are:

a) Whether the storm will manifest (duh)
b) Whether there will be enough high pressure out east to force it into our area rather than up the east coast
c) What precipitation mode it will bring

If this run's forecast were to verify, I'd say we'd be looking at significant snowfall in lower Michigan (more than 6 inches) on the 9th or 10th. It's still way too early to tell if this is going to be our future, though.

Lake effect snowbands to bring flurries to most of lower MI this afternoon

What's on the radar right now:

..pretty much lines right up with my outlook for today:

Flurries are currently flying in Pigeon, which may make for some visibility concerns on wet roads. Drive carefully.

January 2016 beginning to look like LITERAL polar opposite of December 2015

UPDATE: A correction was made regarding dates of the upcoming potential winter storm. Originally I wrote, "Sunday, January 6th" as I was looking at the wrong month on the calendar. That week's Sunday is the 3rd, and January 6th falls on a Wednesday. The corrected dates are clarified below.

For all intents and purposes, December was a late fall month (or perhaps even early spring month) weather-wise. We enjoyed temperatures in the 60s, lots of rainfall, had bouts of lightning and even severe weather. Nights that had low temperatures below freezing were few and far between, let alone days, and record highs were blown off the board for weeks in a row all over the state. Despite our November snow, until yesterday, it's been very easy to forget that it's winter in Michigan.

That will not be the case in January, at least if the GFS's long range forecast isn't complete bunk.

Two things should be very apparent by the above loop. The first is that it's likely to get cold - very cold compared to what we've been dealing with. For the first week of January, daytime highs are going to struggle to get above freezing, and we may be looking at lows in the teens or even single digits. This will probably bring a great deal of lake effect snow to the snowbelts, as the north winds cascade across some ridiculously warm lakes. I would not be surprised if several feet of lake effect snow is in the future of the western counties of the lower peninsula - not to mention most of the upper peninsula - within the next week.

The second, more interesting thing is that there looks to be a couple of opportunities for some powerful winter storms to come up from the south. The first chance for a storm appears to be the week of Sunday, January 3rd, on or around the 6th or 7th. For now, the GFS is forecasting that a surface low over Manitoba will deepen and intensify as it sucks up moisture from the gulf, which could bring just about any type of precipitation to our neighborhood, as our temperatures will be questionable around that time. If I had to venture a guess at this point, I'd say snow, though it's way too early to tell for sure, let alone tell how much would fall, if the storm even manifests. The second opportunity (and this may well depend on how the first scenario pans out) would come a couple days later, around the 9th or 10th. This run predicts a stronger system that would strike us directly, though keep in mind that this is near the point where the GFS starts to become highly unreliable in terms of forecasting precipitation.

To summarize:

• It's likely that temperatures will begin to drop toward normal levels for January in Michigan - perhaps even slightly below normal in some areas - beginning this week.
• High amounts of accumulating lake effect snow are likely to fall in the snowbelts
• There should be at least one opportunity for a decent winter storm to strike Michigan by the end of the week of January 3rd

Mid-January deep freeze on the way?

Some unsettling colors are beginning to appear in the GFS's long range temperature forecasts. This is coming up in several runs, culminating with this morning's:

Windchills not included. Yikes.

The mild winter we've seen thus far may yet give way to at least a brief period of the sub-zero arctic joy we've dealt with over the last couple of years. Stay tuned.

Storm Results: DTE spared the worst, but quite a few power outages in Consumers Energy territories

Major kudos to DTE for handling this one with the finesse of a well-seasoned army. It also helps that the storm itself dropped a lot more snow/sleet east of I-75 and north of I-69 than it did freezing rain, too. That isn't to say that there weren't more outages in the DTE territories than what's currently shown - it's just that DTE managed to get those customers turned back on by this morning. Most of the remaining power outages are confined to Consumers Energy territories south of I-94 or west of US-131.

Most of the snow is already melting here in Pigeon, with the plow trucks and snowblowers taking care of what's left. The morning commute may have been a bit treacherous, but midday to afternoon people will probably be left wondering, "What storm?"

All and all, I think we got out of this one with minimal impact. Northern Michigan got a hell of a snowstorm, which should definitely help the ailing ski and snowmobile businesses up there. After all is said and done, they might even be dealing with a semi-normal January season.

Weather in a word: Sh***y

Latest mesoscale discussion regarding the winter storm:

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI...CNTRL AND NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 290000Z - 290500Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   SRN AND CNTRL WI...LAKE MI AND NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
   HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   SOME AREAS. IN CNTRL LOWER MI...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 03Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO A
   TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER CNTRL
   IL. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST
   NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE SFC TEMPS
   FROM CNTRL WI EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S F.
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN IL
   WITH A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
   EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION THIS EVENING ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM MILWAUKEE WI NEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI DEVELOP AN
   ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR 850 MB TO 600 MB SUGGESTING THAT
   CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL AGGREGATION WHICH
   WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. FOR THIS REASON...AREAS OF HEAVY
   SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL WI EXTENDING
   NEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO NRN LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH
   PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI...FREEZING RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
   THE VICINITY OF DETROIT AND FLINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL LOWER
   MI EARLY THIS EVENING RAPIDLY COOL THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
   SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AFTER 03Z FROM WEST
   TO EAST. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
   SNOW OCCURS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/29/2015

I'll let these pictures and video below speak for themselves. Video contains one curse word, but it's appropriate for this situation. The wind is gusting at least to 30 mph. The next 48 hours may raze my sanity.

The Old Man is back with a vengeance.

SPC Issues Mesoscale Discussion For Southern Lower MI Regarding Freezing Rain

You know things are bad when Norman, Oklahoma takes time out from talking about tornadoes to talk about how much ice is going to fall in your state.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 281704Z - 282300Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES UP TO 0.05 INCH/HR
   POSSIBLE...SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AS A COMPACT...CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION FROM THE SW...A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL
   PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM IL/WRN IND. CURRENT SFC
   OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICT A MIX OF ONGOING LIGHT
   TO MODERATE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SNOW/SLEET BEING
   REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI...AND FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS
   OF NRN IND AND NWRN OH. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DETROIT MI CONTAINED A
   SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM 900-500 MB...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
   ERODE/MOISTEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. ONE
   EFFECT OF THIS MOISTENING WILL BE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THIS
   LAYER TO THE WET-BULB TEMPERATURE...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL BURST OF
   MODERATE SNOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...FORECAST WAA MAINLY IN THE
   850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   A TRANSITION FROM S TO N ACROSS THE MCD AREA TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
   THROUGH 22-23Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.05 INCH/HR APPEAR
   POSSIBLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
   QPF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO
   LIQUID RAIN ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BY EARLY THIS
   EVENING AS THE SFC TEMPERATURE CLIMBS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

   ..GLEASON.. 12/28/2015

The technical details aside, only one thing really matters: 0.05 inches per hour of freezing rain possible for the highlighted areas through 6PM tonight. If those figures pan out, this ice will cause power outages, and they will be widespread.

WINTER STORM WARNING for ICE in effect - Ugly situation for most of Michigan

I was hoping I would get away without using the ice template this year, but it looks as though that was wishful thinking.

A major storm complex which has spawned killer tornadoes for days across the southern states and brought record amounts of snowfall to areas of the Great Plains is now targeting our abode, and it's going to bring, what is in my humble opinion, one of the worst modes of winter precipitation that it possibly could. The relatively rare Winter Storm Warning for Sleet/Ice has been issued for most of lower Michigan, while the more typical "Heavy Snow" warning encompasses the U.P.

The main bullseye for the ugliest portion is going to be the central counties of lower Michigan, stretching from west to east from Muskegon into the Thumb Area, encompassing the Saginaw Valley. This region will receive the worst of all worlds. 1-2 inches of snow will be the appetizer. After that, the main course - 1-2" of sleet. Finally, for desert 0.2 to 0.4 inches of ice (freezing rain) will coat everything for a few hours from late this evening into the morning when temperatures start to rise above freezing, which is almost certain to knock power out in some locations.

I am not looking forward to the next 24 hours by any stretch of the imagination. =\ I can't complain too loudly, though, especially considering what they've been dealing with in the south. This has been one of the worst weeks for severe weather I've ever seen, and easily the worst this year.

Snow pretty much out - Rain/Sleet/Freezing Rain looks like it's on the way

Mid range and short term models are coming in regarding Monday night into Tuesday, and things are looking not-so-great for those who were hoping the historic Texas blizzard would drop a decent amount of snow in Michigan.

Just like the ECMWF predicted the other day, surface temperatures will be much colder than those aloft, leading to precipitation that will fall as liquid. Sleet an freezing rain look to come down overnight Monday, but temperatures on Tuesday should quickly warm to melt any ice accumulation, so I'm not too concerned about a major ice storm, at least at this point. We'll know much more by tomorrow when the high-res and short term models start to come in. By Tuesday afternoon, surface temperatures will be much warmer, as the tropical moisture the system is bringing with it influences the surrounding air, and we'll be looking at plain old rain once again.

Merry Christmas from MWG! Get ready for a potential blizzard next week

I hope that everyone is having a great Christmas. We in Michigan have a lot to be thankful for this year weather wise, especially after the recent events in the south. My thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who was affected by these horrible storms. It breaks my heart to know that some people will be going through Christmas homeless, injured or without family thanks to the weather. With tornadoes the size and strength of the one which roared through Mississippi, there's only so much that having advanced warning can accomplish; you can do everything right, and still wind up dead. It's heartbreaking.

It's been easy to forget that we're now in the midst of winter. This may change after next week if the latest GFS run is to be believed. Take a look at the image below and see for yourself:

That's well over a foot predicted for most of lower Michigan. This is only one run of one model, but what a run it is. We'll see if anything like this crops up in any other runs, at which time I'll take it much more seriously.

Storm mode next week highly questionable

The models have been anything but consistent regarding the storm that will affect Michigan early to mid next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting temperatures near the ground will be quite cold. The ECMWF are now leaning toward warmer temperatures aloft, which leads me to believe we may wind up with sleet changing over to rain, or rain which freezes initially before melting quickly. However, the GFS continues to predict heavy snowfall for SE Michigan. See below:

As such, I've introduced a new winter outlook template:

I have no idea what's going to happen just yet. The difference between the models and the deviations between runs are leaving too much up in the air. I expect to know more in the coming days.

PDS tornado watch ongoing for TN valley

Not related to Michigan, but this is of particular concern considering the circumstances. A relatively rare type of tornado watch with the enhanced wording "Particularly Dangerous Situation" has been issued for portions of four states to our south.

These types of watches are usually issued when a major tornado outbreak is expected or occurring, with EF4 and EF5 tornadoes not only possible but likely. Essentially, those in the affected counties should treat this as a high risk day at this point. If you have relatives or friends in the area, urge them to treat this situation with extraordinary care. Lives can and will be lost in these types of situations.

Text of the watch:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
     FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
     NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
     800 PM CST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO
   LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
   AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 557...WW 558...

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.

 

Tuesday December 29th Potentially Significant Winter Storm

Hopefully this post won't get buried in all the severe news and information, but I'll do my best to make sure that it doesn't.

With all the severe weather discussion, it's easy to forget that it's actually winter time, and after today we're going to be switching gears back to the seasonal hazards we should be having. That being said, winter weather fans who have been left out in the cold warm may begin to rejoice after they're done reading this post.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to indicate that a major winter storm may strike Michigan by next Tuesday. The pictures below are worth well over a thousand words:

ECMWF 00z1222 run temperature forecast for 1PM EST 12/29

ECMWF 00z1222 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 1PM EST 12/29

GFS 06z1223 run temperature forecast for 4AM EST 12/29

GFS 06z1223 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 4AM EST 12/29

GFS 00z1222 run MSLP and precipitation forecast for 1AM EST 12/29

There are a couple of differences between the models, namely in timing and in temperature. The ECMWF predicts a slower storm system and warmer temperatures, which would probably mean less snow and a possible mix of rain/freezing rain. Consecutive GFS runs, however, predict a stronger storm system which would strike earlier in the day and even into the overnight Monday, with much colder temperatures forecast. If this forecast were to verify, parts of lower Michigan could easily see a foot of snow.

I'll be monitoring this closely over the coming days and report updates as they come.

Moderate risk issued by SPC for lower MS/Tennessee Valley

As I expected, the SPC has upgraded the categorical outlook to a 15% hatched tornado risk for the lower MS Valley and Tennessee Valley areas:

The threat for a major tornado outbreak is very real. This outlook could breach high risk criteria within the next update, scheduled by 11:30AM Eastern. A dangerous day is ahead for these regions.

Southern lower now under 'Slight' risk - all of lower MI under 'Marginal'

Severe weather chances in Michigan today look to be picking up a bit, per the Storm Prediction Center:

This includes both a elevated damaging wind and isolated tornado threat for the counties under the slight risk. Everyone else in lower Michigan - and even in some areas of the U.P. - are under a marginal risk; isolated severe thunderstorm warnings will likely pop up later today within the green shaded areas.

That being said, my concern has actually been tempered a bit - the latest NAM4KM runs aren't depicting as much of a conditional threat for the state as they did yesterday. However, the wind fields will be quite strong, and literally -no- threat was depicted last month when three tornadoes touched down in the thumb area. With that in mind, the SPC has their reasoning for assigning the elevated risk. You never know how the lakes are going to factor in when it comes to a storm system like this one.

Regarding the southern Mississippi Valley, just by looking at this ominous tornado outlook, I'm almost 100% certain that some areas will be upgraded to a 15% tornado + 10% significant tornado threat in later outlooks, which equates to a moderate risk area. Depending on how events unfold, that could even go up for certain areas, which would mean a high risk day - something we've yet to have this year and something I was hoping we could avoid in 2015. I could be wrong about both. I'm hoping that I am. Nobody needs tornadoes on Christmas.

SPC updates outlook - southern lower MI now officially under gun

Southern lower MI is now "officially" under a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow. I'm still maintaining my marginal risk as far north as the Saginaw Valley and Thumb areas, as forecasted conditions by the NAM4KM appear that they'll be robust for severe weather even into the nighttime hours.

More updates as they come.

Maintaining marginal severe risk in thunderstorm outlook - things looking grim for MS valley

Last few NAM4KM runs have indicated continued chances of severe weather in southern lower Michigan Wednesday evening, but there's nothing that demonstrates an increase in potential. As such, I'm continuing the marginal outlook I included in previous posts. 

This is not the case for states to the south of Michigan. It is now looking much more likely that a significant tornado outbreak will strike the Mississippi Valley tomorrow. 

If you have friends or family in any of the states designated for significant severe weather, or know anyone traveling to said areas, please make them aware of the situation. This is one of the more scary forecasts I've seen this year, if not the most scary. The hodographs are approaching the levels that they were in the days prior to June 22nd, only this time they're not backing off - if anything they're getting longer, more curved, and more kinked. A very dangerous Christmas may be ahead for many people.

NAM4KM beginning to see Wednesday - Ominous forecast

Well, my Spider Sense just started to tingle a bit more on this one.

These images are from the latest high-res NAM4KM run, which is just now beginning to make predictions regarding Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few things of concern:

• The supercell composite index is coming in rather high even in our neck of the woods
• The forecast is calling for storms, and in our area, the storm mode (at least initially) appears to be discrete
• 1hr max updraft helicity appears to be quite strong in some areas of Illinois and Indiana, and is not to be ignored in areas of Michigan, either

To put it simply, when these factors combine, it tends to signify an increased tornado risk. What's really making the hair on the back of my neck stand up a bit is that this is beginning to feel a bit like the November 17th event. In the days prior to the outbreak, different areas were delineated for a severe risk. As the days moved on and model guidance became more focused, these areas began to creep further northward. Eventually, the result was the system which produced the Washington, Illinois tornado, among several others.

I wouldn't become super alarmed at this point. Everything would have to come together in horrid fashion for an event like that to repeat itself. For now, this setup is looking quite strong, but the models aren't predicting that we're going to bear the worst of it. I'm quite a bit more concerned for the Ohio Valley than I am for the Great Lakes at this point, especially at this time of year, when a) many are traveling, b) severe weather is not typically on anyone's mind. It needs to be, so if you're reading this, make sure to make your friends, neighbors and relatives aware of the situation, especially if they're traveling. Right now my thinking is that this is going to wind up being a moderate or high risk day for at least one region of the country, and that could cost lives.

I'll continue to avidly monitor the forecast and report updates as I get them.  

Chance of thunderstorms, severe weather on Wednesday

It's almost unthinkable to be talking severe weather in Michigan on the day before Christmas Eve, but here we are. Late afternoon into the evening on Wednesday, we're looking at a fairly decent chance of thunderstorms, some of which could definitely cross into the strong category. A very powerful, negatively tilted storm system moving to our north and east will be the cause of this, and the models are suggesting that enough moisture and instability could be in place to give us some trouble. 

The NAM and GFS have both consistently predicted this amplified zone of instability/sheer, which could make for quite a major severe weather outbreak to the south if it manifests, and encroach on our neighborhood, too.

Wind profiles will, as typical for this time of year, be on the extremely strong side. I mentioned during the summer that winter storms tend to be quite a bit stronger, so when they happen during the warmer months, watch out. It just so happens that December is lining up to be a warm month in quite a few areas of the country - some of which could see a very significant severe weather outbreak on Wednesday as a result.

While the SPC has yet to officially put us under the gun for anything beyond "general thunder", I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll be upgrading our categorical outlook to "marginal" at the very least over the next 24-36 hours, namely for the southern half of lower Michigan. The models have been fairly consistent in predicting conditional favorability for severe weather in that area, though other factors such as cloud cover, early-day or previous-day left over convection, and timing as always, will have an impact. For now, the models are predicting temperatures in the 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s, which combined with strong forcing from the powerful cold front and ridiculously high levels of wind sheer could spell a risk for damaging wind and tornadoes. 

Stay tuned for further developments.

Lake effect snow to heavily impact some areas of U.P., snowbelts

Looks like there's going to be a bit more lake effect snow in some areas than originally expected.

Lake effect snow warnings (designated on my outlook as Winter Storm Warnings) are in effect for Houghton and Keweenaw counties (as well as Isle Royale), and advisories are in effect for some other counties along the Lake Superior shoreline. In the lower peninsula, several counties in southwest Michigan are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-4 inches of snow, while some counties in northern lower MI are under an advisory for up to 6" of accumulation.

First lake effect snow of the season on the way

By Saturday our mild temperatures will be taking a significant dip, and those in the snowbelts are going to be looking at some lake effect snow as a result.

My personal opinion of what the various regions of Michigan will see from the oncoming arctic air, by Friday into Saturday.

I'm not so sure how much the lower peninsula snowbelts will see out of this one - I suppose some accumulation is possible, but it'll be difficult to stay on the ground due to how warm it is. Unlike the last storm, this won't be wet and sticky snow nor will it be falling at a rate of 1-2" per hour, thus I have my doubts about just how much will stick, at least south of St. Ignace. 

Solid squall line developing over Saginaw Valley - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for parts of Bay, Midland and Saginaw Counties

Didn't expect this...

Storms over the area have intensified significantly and are look to be producing gusts greater than 60mph. Be careful if you're in the affected regions.

Another rainy day ahead of us

The monstrous storm system which has brought both tornadoes and blizzard conditions to the plains states is setting up to drench most of Michigan again today.



By the time this is over, cold temperatures are going to move back in, setting us up for a slight chance of snow on Thursday and Friday, though any accumulations should be minimal, and the jury is still out on exactly where in Michigan would be most affected. I'll update the outlook once I have a bit more information, and post accordingly.

Thunderstorms affecting mid Michigan

Wouldn't believe it if I wasn't seeing it, but here it is December the 13th and there's thunder and lightning outside my window.  These storms are impressive as far as rain goes, but I'm not seeing any signs of them going severe. Some gusty winds and torrential downpours are to be expected, though. I'm dreaming of a rumbling Christmas?

Another dense fog advisory in effect for central and SE lower MI

Expect more dangerous driving conditions overnight and into the morning hours as more fog settles into lower Michigan.

Text of the advisory:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 901 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 ...DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-081200- /O.CON.KDTX.FG.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-151208T1600Z/ SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB- WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON... HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE 901 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. * DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. IMPACTS... * POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

Very foggy conditions out there this morning

This is the sight that greeted me as I stepped out toward my office. I knew it was fairly dense last night, too, but it has yet to lift as of 8:30am eastern, though it's expected to lift by lunch time. A dense fog advisory remains in effect until the weather service cancels it or 11AM arrives, whichever comes first. Quite a few thumb area schools are on a two hour delay, while some are even closed outright.