12z Euro continues to predict monster Tuesday/Wednesday blizzard

The ECMWF's midday run was almost a mirror image of last night's in both timing and track of the storm it's predicting will plow through Michigan late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This model data predicts that the storm will bear an uncanny resemblance to the one that hit two nights ago, which caused blizzard conditions throughout the area. Winds were so strong that they picked up sticky icy snow and blew it onto surfaces and power lines, leading to widespread power outages, and major structural damage in the Thumb.

Here's what the ECMWF is predicting will occur from Wednesday night around 10PM EST into Thursday morning:

Precipitation rate continues to be predicted as very high, with the bulk in the cold sector, which if this forecast verifies, would move through Mid Michigan.

Snowfall rates between 2-3 inches per hour continue to be predicted, though I still think this might be a little excessive.

Looking at this is like looking back in time at the previous storm. Winds in excess of 40kts off the lake. Not a pretty thought.

Three hours later the storm would still be going strong.

Again, 2-2½ inch per hour snowfall rates being predicted.

Winds would continue to be coming off the lake at 40kts+. If this forecast should verify for this three hour window, that's blizzard criteria.

This remains a wait-and-see situation. This is two runs of what is usually a very accurate model, but it isn't to say that it's anywhere close to a sure thing. The latest run of the GFS deviated so far from its previous forecast (as well as any semblance of agreement with this model) that I'm not even going to bother posting images from it, but I will say that it's calling for the storm to miss us entirely and train up the eastern states as a positively tilted, much weaker system. As of right now, I'm thinking that is a major outlier and that the scenario above is still more likely, as the ECMWF has been far more consistent (two runs predicting pretty much the same thing) and is usually more accurate than the GFS at this "range" of the forecast. However, it was predicting the storm to strike as late as Thursday in previous runs leading up to the last two. This could be an indication that recent data has come in to make the model more accurate, or it could mean that the model is all over the place like the GFS. If another run comes in predicting the same thing, it'll do a lot for my confidence in the forecast. As of now, if you ignore the last GFS run, there is some degree of agreement between the models, both run to run and with each other. That leads me to believe the storm is a bit more likely to happen than not.

I'll continue to watch and provide updates as they come, but I wouldn't put the snowblowers, snowshovels, or generators away just yet.