We've experienced a very wacky winter so far. We've had thunderstorms at Christmas time, and temperatures ranging from single digits all the way to the 50s since. December was a record-breaking month for high temperatures, and truly, late January wasn't all that bad, either. The entire winter pattern has felt late-fall/early-spring-like. We're a bit above normal for the first couple days of February, and those temperatures will probably be on the rise at least for today, as a powerful storm system enters our area and looks to douse us with rain. The lower half of the state could even see a thunderstorm or two, per the Storm Prediction Center.
That being said, it's still February.
The above image is the Climate Prediction Center's model forecasting temperature anomaly for the second week of February. Notice the darker blue shades around the Great Lakes region - this means that the model is predicting that temperatures will be well below normal for this time period. While we're likely going to continue to see average to warmer-than-normal temperatures this week, next week is looking much different; some of the coldest air to cross the states yet this year is set to pounce on Michigan. Below is what the latest GFS is predicting for surface-temperatures late next week.
If you're like me, you're saying, "Yuck," right about now.
The good news is that this trend doesn't appear that it's going to last very long. The CFS has us right around normal to start the week after next, and then slightly above normal to close it out. The last full week of February is looking like it will be right around normal, too. This is good, as it means that while temperatures won't be tropical-island-in-the-sun warm, they shouldn't be ridiculously-bone chilling-sub-zero, either.
So what about that early spring? If the monthly CFS model is to be believed, I'd say we have a pretty good chance.
Here's what's being predicted for March. The further north you go, the more above normal temperatures are expected to be. That's good news for those who would like to see an early spring. The news gets even better for April:
Again, according to the model, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than normal for our region - an entire 6-8° on average. Precipitation for both months is also expected to be on the drier side, which leads me to believe we're going to start seeing a more amplified jet stream tracking storms up through the Great Plains rather than through our neck of the woods, similar to last spring. This could spell severe weather trouble once again for west Texas and Oklahoma during April, who are expected to be cooler than normal, meaning strong cold fronts will likely interact with very ample warm moist Gulf air. The CFS predicts precipitation amounts for these areas to be well above normal (two to four inches), so this could be a red flag.
While we're still way out to be talking May temperatures, know that the CFS also predicts Michigan to be above normal, with ample precipitation. This leads me to believe we're going to be looking at a hot, stormy May with a few severe weather events. 1997 was our last super El Niño winter, and on the heels of that year was the 1998 Great Lakes Derecho. I'm not saying something of that magnitude will happen again, but this is an analogous year.
To summarize:
• Temperatures should remain around normal this week, then plummet to sub-zero levels next week. Wind chill advisories may be issued. The rest of February should be normal/slightly above normal.
• I agree with my namesake that an early spring is on the way - March looks like it'll be warmer and drier than normal. This is not to say one or two cold blasts couldn't hit, or one or two winter storms, but the storm trend has also been toward warm air dominance/rain and I don't see evidence of it changing.
• May in Michigan will likely be a hot month with lots of thunderstorms.
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